Upcoming Stretch Will Prove if Blue Jays Are Contenders or Pretenders

The Toronto Blue Jays have an important stretch to prove that the sudden offensive spark isn't a fluke.

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays entered their series against the Athletics below .500 and three games out of an American League Wild Card spot.

With a resounding four-game sweep, they now sit a half-game back with an important upcoming stretch for their 2025 MLB season hopes.

The Blue Jays have been wildly inconsistent over the course of their campaign, but are now on the brink of contention ahead of their series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The opinion of many insiders is that Toronto is better positioned to sell ahead of the trade deadline.

However, they are merely 5.5 games back from the New York Yankees to take over the division lead.

Here’s what makes the next 12 contests for the Blue Jays critical to assessing their contention in the postseason.

Blue Jays Face Critical Stretch That Will Reveal Them as Buyers or Sellers

Toronto's last week has been a whirlwind, fueled by a dramatic late win over the Texas Rangers that propelled them into their sweep of the Athletics.

It has perhaps revealed what the team needs to prove to solidify themselves as buyers.

None of their last three opponents had records above .500 entering the series. The Tampa Bay Rays swept them on the road.

They recorded only two road wins in that stretch against the Texas Rangers.

The Blue Jays have proven they can score at home prior to their sweep of the Athletics sitting fourth in the MLB with an average of 5.19 runs per game at the Rogers Centre. They also have the third-most homers at home with 42.

Their drops to 3.04 runs per game on the road, though, where they rank dead last in the league with 16 home runs and have the second-fewest total hits.

Their next 12-game stretch gives them an opportunity to prove that perspective wrong.

The Phillies, Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals all sit above the .500 mark, and the Twins are the team that the Blue Jays are a half-game back from in the Wild Card race.

Toronto’s first task is proving they can sweep an opponent with a winning record. They host Philadelphia in a three-game series at home before heading out for back-to-back road series.

The start at home should help them sustain the recent firepower on offense that was, quietly, second in the league through May with a 124 wRC+.

That’s a massive jump from April, where they were No. 26 with an 83 wRC+.

Their postseason odds on Baseball Reference increased by 24.3% in the last week -- reaching 41% -- and have risen overall by 30.4% over the last month of play.

Should they remain consistent through the next 12 games, they’ll be able to build up a resume and capitalize on a schedule of weaker opponents through July, including the Athletics and Orioles to close out the month.

First, the Blue Jays must prove they aren’t a fluke and show command, particularly on the road, against worthy opponents.