For the Atlanta Braves, the Offense Has To Carry the Load Now

The World Series aspirations of the Atlanta Braves lie on the bats of the veterans at the top of the lineup

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson, second baseman Ozzie Albies, and third baseman Austin Riley have combined for just fourteen homers in the team's first 50 games. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The road to the World Series just got a bit tougher for the Atlanta Braves. 

With the Sunday left knee injury to Ronald Acuña Jr, one that will keep him out for the rest of the regular season, it’s important to have some proper context about where the Braves stand right now.

The regular season isn’t over, and this team is more than capable of making a deep postseason run. They did just that in 2021, losing Acuña on July 10th in Miami and then going on to win the World Series behind career hot streaks from outfield trade acquisitions in Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Joc Pederson.  

I don’t think you need to do that now. 

The 2024 roster is infinitely more talented than what the Braves were left with in the wake of Acuña’s 2021 injury - here’s the starting lineup for the first game after the Braves lost Acuña in Miami: 

RF Ehire Adrianza
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Orlando Arcia
SS Dansby Swanson
CF Guillermo Heredia
C Kevan Smith

Two career infielders in Ehire Adrianza and Orlando Arcia manning the corner outfield spots. Kevan Smith as the backup catcher, who had such a great year (.165/.248.198 in thirty games) that Atlanta would end up using six different backup catchers that season (and Smith never playing in affiliated ball again after his final start for Atlanta on August 8th.) 

Ian Anderson started that game, with Josh Tomlin, Shane Greene, and Edgar Santana all among the relievers that spelled him in a 7-4 Braves loss that dropped them to 44-45 on the season.  

Now, let’s look at the roster this season. You’ll replace those two infielders in the outfield corners with Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall, with Michael Harris II representing a significant upgrade over Guillermo Heredia in center. With the expected return of Sean Murphy from the injured list this afternoon, Travis d’Arnaud returns to the backup catcher role. 

Once Charlie Morton leaves today’s start, he’ll be replaced by a high-powered quarter of relievers in AJ Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and Raisel Iglesias. 

It’s an infinitely more talented roster than what Atlanta was working with in 2021. 

And it’s going to come down to the offense. 

Yes, Atlanta got some clutch postseason pitching performances in 2021 - Max Fried being stepped on at first base in what appeared like it could be a broken ankle before locking in for six scoreless innings in the championship-clinching game six against Houston. Ian Anderson taking a no-hitter through five innings on a rain-filled Atlanta night in game three of the World Series. Will Smith going a perfect 6-6 on save opportunities in the postseason, or Tyler Matzek’s NLCS heroics in game six against the Dodgers.  

But the story of the 2021 postseason was the offense. 

Joc Pederson’s two pinch-hit homers in the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. Eddie Rosario going nuclear in the NLCS against LA with fourteen hits, three homers, and nine RBIs. Jorge Soler’s three World Series homers against Houston, including one that still hasn’t come back to Earth yet. 

That’s what needs to happen again. 

Atlanta’s 30-20 right now, the third-best record in the National League but six games back of the Philadelphia Phillies, who are in the midst of one of their best starts in franchise history at 38-16. The Braves have gotten to this point thanks to their pitching - Atlanta’s 3.38 team ERA is the 7th-best mark in baseball, and three of the team’s four qualified starters have ERAs better than that, led by Reynaldo López at 1.75 and Chris Sale at 2.12. 

López and Sale are the drivers of the success for Atlanta - both starters have combined for just 25 runs in their nineteen starts and 115 innings. Sale has won seven consecutive starts and rattled off a twenty-one-inning streak, allowing just two runs and two walks across five starts in the month of May (thirty-two innings). López has the third-lowest ERA in baseball among qualified starters. 

But it might not be sustainable. As we’ve discussed before, both starters have workload concerns this season - Sale’s coming off of 151 innings combined across the last three seasons due to injury, while López hasn’t gone past 66 innings in a season since 2019 due to being a reliever the last few seasons. There’s no guarantee that Sale can continue to be as effective down the stretch as he has been during this hot streak in May, while there’s legitimate questions about how long López, already at 51.1 innings, can stick in the rotation before he needs to move to the bullpen.   

No, Atlanta’s success this season (or lack thereof) will be because of the offense. And that pressure comes down to the “big four” of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ozzie Albies. That quartet combined for 164 homers last season, paced by Olson’s league-leading 54. 

But after Ozuna’s fifteen longballs this season, the other three in that group have combined for fourteen homers. Olson’s batting just .230, while Riley was sitting at .245 when he last played, almost two weeks ago owing to a mild intercostal strain. Albies has built his average up to .269, but his current .392 slugging percentage is currently a career-low for the second baseman. 

Marcell Ozuna’s carried the offense this season, with his fifteen homers and forty-seven RBIs pacing the National League. 

But he needs help. And it’s up to Riley, Olson, and Albies to give it to him.