Cardinals Biggest Trade Deadline Domino to Watch

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big decision to make when it comes to Dustin May.

Jul 12, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May (3) throws against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We're under two weeks away from the 2026 Major League Baseball trade deadline and there are a handful of players on the St. Louis Cardinals to watch.

The Cardinals spent the offseason trading veterans away to give the young guys throughout the roster a chance to show what they can do. Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have the second-youngest roster in the league with an average age of 26.9 years old.

This young roster has given the fanbase a lot to be excited about this season. The emergence of JJ Wetherholt and the breakout of Jordan Walker are exactly what you'd hope for from a season like this. The whole point was development, and Wetherholt and Walker have clearly emerged as the two building block pieces for this franchise. Michael McGreevy has proven throughout the season that he's someone who should be in this rotation for a long time to come as well. Plenty of other guys have impressed and the Cardinals have outperformed expectations. Which is what led to chatter about the idea of adding, rather than subtracting pieces.

What Should St. Louis Do?

Jul 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Dustin May (3) throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the third inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

But the Cardinals are just three games above .500 right now at 52-49 and could go either way. The deadline is 11 days away. If the Cardinals get hot, maybe that changes the narrative. But right now the Cardinals certainly look like a team that is in the middle. It's going to be interesting to see how Chaim Bloom handles his first deadline overseeing the Cardinals as the president of baseball operations. Arguably, starter Dustin May will be the biggest domino for the organization for Bloom to figure out between now and the deadline.

First and foremost, May hasn't been red-hot recently. He has a 4.78 ERA overall this season in 19 starts and has a 9.92 ERA over his last five outings. So, his trade value may not be where it would've been earlier in the campaign when he was red-hot in April, May and the first half of June.

Still, there's plenty of talent there. If the Cardinals choose to move May, it's a clear sign that the organization is sticking with at least a similar plan as it had coming into the season. Right when the Cardinals signed May, speculation began about the idea of a trade.

If the Cardinals choose to hold May, there won't be a bigger sign that the club is going to try to make a run at a playoff spot. May has a mutual option for the 2027 season that would be surprising if it got picked up. Mutual options are almost never exercised. So, there's a real chance he goes to free agency after the season. If the Cardinals keep him, they risk losing him for nothing after the season.

Trading or keeping May also impacts other hurlers. For example, Quinn Mathews is tearing it up in Triple-A, but there isn't room in the big league rotation right now. If the Cardinals traded May, there would be an open spot for someone to step into. If the Cardinals hold May, then that would make it difficult to promote Mathews.

May is going to be a key to this deadline that will shine a light on the Cardinals' strategy and potentially unlock playing time for others, or the opposite. He's the biggest domino to follow over the next 11 days for St. Louis.