How the Cubs Can Still Catch the Brewers in the NL Central Race

Over the last two months, the Chicago Cubs have been playing arguably their best baseball all season.

Since June 19, they've been the top offensive team in MLB, posting a league-high 121 wRC+ along with league-bests in RBI (300), runs scored (312), on-base percentage, (.346) and fWAR (14.6).

At 74-54, they sit with a six-game cushion atop the National League Wild Card standings and have a 98.7% chance of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. They've won six of their last eight series and have taken nine consecutive road series wins.

And yet, Fangraphs gives the Cubs just a 12.1% chance to win the NL Central over the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers just won't go away — they own MLB's best record of 78-49 and hold a 4.5-game lead over the Cubs entering play Thursday. They've ruled the NL Central this decade, winning the division title in four of the last six seasons.

The Cubs and Brewers have played each other six times so far in 2026, with the Brewers claiming a 4-2 advantage in the season series thus far after sweeping Chicago at Wrigley Field in May.

Seven games remain between the I-94 rivals before the end of the regular season: First, a four-game series at Wrigley beginning Aug. 31, and then three in Milwaukee beginning Sept. 7.

It's becoming increasingly likely that those seven games will decide who wins the division.

So, what can the Cubs control before they enter that first four-game series at Wrigley at the end of the month? Let's take a look at how things could shake out...

The Remaining Schedules

Aug 18, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The grounds crew puts the tarp on the field during the eighth inning in a game between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cubs have 34 regular-season games left to play before it concludes on Sept. 27.

Per Tankathon, they have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule at a combined .529 winning percentage. The Brewers have the eighth-hardest (.515).

Upcoming Schedule🗓️

Cubs: Brewers:
at KC (3) vs MIN (3)
at WSH (3) at SD (3)
vs STL (3) at LAD (4)
vs CHW (3) vs SEA (3)
at SEA (3) vs ATL (3)
at AZ (3) at NYM (3)
vs…
— Chief Cub (@ChiefCub) August 7, 2026

Prior to the series against the Brewers at Wrigley, the Cubs have a six-game road trip consisting of three games in Seattle and three in Arizona. Then, a home series against the Cincinnati Reds will follow.

The Brewers are playing the Mariners through Thursday, and then will face the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves at home before traveling to New York to play the Mets. A three-game home series against the Texas Rangers will be their send-off before heading to Wrigley.

With that said, it would be in the Cubs' best interest to remain in the ballpark of three to five games behind Milwaukee before the four-game set.

In an ideal world, they'd win their next nine games in a row. But baseball typically doesn't happen that way, so we'll have to settle for a (more grounded-in-reality) dream scenario in which the Cubs win four of six on the West Coast swing and then come home to sweep the struggling Reds.

The Mariners are in third place in an underwhelming AL West and 3-7 in their last 10, which includes a shocking 22-0 loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night.

The Cubs swept the Diamondbacks in May amid their second 10-game win streak of the season, and the Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 matchups with Arizona dating back to 2025.

Then there's the Reds, who have slipped to last place in the NL Central and are the only team in the division with a negative run differential (-88).

The Cubs have the tools to make these next nine games count.

The X-Factors

Aug 5, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) is greeted by third baseman Alex Bregman (3) after hitting a two-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Luckily for the Cubs, they have superstars playing at a superstar level – all at the perfect time. Their production on the offensive end is going to be the difference down the stretch.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has only strengthened his NL MVP case in the last week after racking up 15 total bases in the series against the White Sox, including both a leadoff and a walk-off home run on Monday. He sealed his status as a 30-home-run, 30-stolen-base player in that game, becoming the first Cub in franchise history to do so in back-to-back seasons. He's also the first player to join the 30-30 club in 2026.

The first Cub EVER with back-to-back 30/30 seasons. pic.twitter.com/JyHcDXn9z4
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 18, 2026

Adding to the Cubs' recent offensive prowess is Alex Bregman, who is slashing .303/.375/.549 (.924 OPS) with seven homers and 22 RBI over his last 30 games.

Bregman's second-half turnaround has undoubtedly been one of the Cubs' key success factors since the All-Star break. He went 5-for-13 in the Crosstown Classic, which included a walk-off single on Tuesday night.

Start singing, Cubs fans 🎶

Alex Bregman lines a walk-off single! pic.twitter.com/7TeHNJZw8c
— MLB (@MLB) August 19, 2026

Speaking of second-half turnarounds, Nico Hoerner, who entered the break hitting just .233, has now slashed .353/.376/.471 (.847 OPS) in his last 30 games while continuing to play Gold Glove-level defense.

OH MY GOODNESS, NICO HOERNER! 😮 pic.twitter.com/rhW290pQY3
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 19, 2026

That defensive role will now become even more important with Dansby Swanson likely to miss the remainder of the regular season with a Grade 2 oblique strain.

It's also safe to say that a lot of the Cubs' success over the next few weeks will depend on the form of an up-and-down pitching staff.

While the Cubs' bullpen has the sixth-best ERA (3.01) since July 17 (thank you, Jacob Webb!), the starting rotation has been middle-of-the-pack with a 15th-best 3.97 ERA.

Shota Imanaga has carried the rotation with a 2.55 ERA in 35.1 innings since the break. Also stepping up is David Peterson, who has a 2.20 ERA in 28.2 innings over that span and could see even more innings after Edward Cabrera went on the 15-day IL again with a finger blister.

The Cubs will need Matthew Boyd, Clay Holmes, and Kevin Gausman to limit the home run ball and put together solid outings if they want any chance at making a dent in the Brewers' lead.

Sign up for our free newsletter to stay up-to-date with all things Chicago Cubs.

Add us as a preferred source on Google