Projection Systems Disagree on How Chicago Cubs Will Perform This Year

Projection systems have had a hard time reaching common ground in their assessment of the Chicago Cubs for 2025.

Sep 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Chicago Cubs designated hitter Seiya Suzuki (27, center) talks with starting pitcher Shota Imanaga (18, right) during the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs have been a puzzling franchise over the last couple of years, and one that has not made the playoffs since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

In 2023, the Cubs finished with an 83-79 record, good enough for second in the National League Central, but team brass decided that was not good enough overall, so they brought in Craig Counsell to replace David Ross as manager.

In 2024, Chicago turned their new manager into an... 83-79 record, good enough for second in the NL Central behind the Milwaukee Brewers, who they poached Counsell from.

Team brass once again decided that was not good enough, and they have gone all-in this offseason to make sure they find themselves still playing when October rolls around.

Despite the influx of talent the team has seen this winter, projection systems disagree on how this club will perform in 2025.

PECOTA gives the Cubs an 85.8% chance at reaching the playoffs, while Fangraphs gives them only a 55.3% chance. The difference of 30.5 points is the third-largest difference in MLB.

"While both FanGraphs and PECOTA expect Chicago to take the division crown in 2025," writes Thomas Harrigan for MLB.com, "the two disagree on the gap between the Cubs and the rest of the NL Central. FanGraphs sees the race as much closer, with roughly three games separating the Cubs and Brewers, while PECOTA predicts a 10-game disparity between those two teams and gives Chicago the third-shortest playoff odds of any MLB club behind the Dodgers and Braves."

No one in their right mind can look at this club and say that, on paper, they are not a playoff team. And while Fangraphs is not saying that with their projection, the chances they have given Chicago to make the playoffs are laughably low.

For the first time since the core of superstars that led this franchise to the World Series in 2016 was disbanded, they have a superstar on offense in Kyle Tucker who can put the team on his back and provide the power that has long been absent.

The rotation is not only the best in the NL Central, but it is also one of the best in the sport. They also have some of the weakest lineups to face on a regular basis from three-quarters of their divisional opponents.

On paper, the Cubs should not only be considered a lock for the playoffs, but they should also be considered legitimate contenders to represent the National League in the World Series with what they have done to improve this offseason.