Numbers Don't Lie: The Cubs Have An Alex Bregman Problem

The Cubs came into the 2026 season with championship aspirations after what was a formative 2025 season for the team's young core. Finally getting a taste of the playoffs under Craig Counsell's Cubs, Jed Hoyer felt like his club was missing something all season despite landing Kyle Tucker before the season started.

There were rumors that the Cubs reportedly pursued another former Houston Astro that offseason, one Alex Bregman. So, after the Cubs NLDS loss to their in-division rival Brewers, Hoyer and the Cubs made a strong effort to land the 32-year-old third baseman. And that made it happen with a five-year, $175 mil deal.

Only Jason Heyward and Dansby Swanson have been paid more money to play for the Cubs, as Hoyer hoped Bregman could provide more pop to their lineup, as well as leadership in the clubhouse.

Sadly, through 88 games, Bregman is currently in the midst of the worst season of his career. His batting average (.241) and slugging percentage (.345) would both be all-time lows for the veteran infielder, and for the first time in his career, he has a negative offensive fWAR at -2.9 (1.4 fWAR on the season).

Outside of Bregman's defense, which has actually been very good with 9 defensive runs saved, his debut season in Chicago can be deemed a disaster. Now, Bregman isn't the only Cubs hitter struggling, but he is their highest-profile hitter spiraling at the plate. And while nobody on the Cubs was expecting Bregman to produce another 41 home runs as he did in 2019, the veteran was being counted on to provide stability to a lineup that lacked it most of last season.

Should the Cubs expected a regression comnig for Alex Bregman?

Jun 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman (3) celebrates in the dugout out after scoring a run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the sixth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Alex Bregman had an impressive one season in Boston after nine years in Houston, proving over that time he was one of the most consistent players in the game. His track record paired nicely with Bregman's reputation as an excellent teammate, something the Cubs were quick to point out as a key reason for signing him to the third-largest contract in team history.

But despite the impressive numbers Bregman put up in Boston, his time as a Red Sox was a tale of two halves. Bregman dealt with a right calf strain last year that limited him to just 114 games, yet he was batting .299 with 11 home runs before the injury. Bregman returned to the lineup on July 11th and would slash .250/.338/.386 with only 7 home runs and 18 total extra-base hits.

Despite the second-half struggles, Bregman still managed to produce when runners were on base (.854 OPS) and in RISP situations (.828 OPS). However, comparing Bregman's 2nd half slash line to his current slash line (.241/.340/.345 in '26), it's nearly identical – even more concerning is that Bregman has been miserable in RISP this year.

Alex Bregman is a career .285 hitter with runners on base.

This year he’s batting .214 in 204 plate appearances.

He’s second in all of baseball with 189 runners left on base, trailing only Ian Happ with 196. pic.twitter.com/46xMtCXOkc
— Chief Cub (@ChiefCub) July 7, 2026

This season, Bregman has a .609 OPS with men on base and an even lower .556 in RISP. He also only has 10 total extra-base hits in 204 plate appearances with men on base. He's simply not getting the job done this year, and it's been especially bad in crucial moments for the Cubs.

Some of Bregman's struggles can be traced back to his problems with breaking balls this year, whiffing on 27.8 percent of them this season. He's slugging .380 against fastballs but only .275 on breaking balls, so teams are feeding Bregman a steady diet of spin. And it's been incredibly effective.

It's hard to say the Cubs should have seen this coming from a player as consistent as Bregman, but after showing signs of struggle last year, he's become an entirely broken hitter in Cubbie blue. With only six more games until the All-Star break, he has run out of time to build any real momentum before the season's midpoint.

The Cubs can only hope that a few days away from the field provide the reset he desperately needs. If the bat doesn't come around in the second half, what was expected to be one of the club's biggest strengths could instead become one of its biggest disappointments.

Sign up for our free newsletter to stay up-to-date with all things Chicago Cubs.

Add us as a preferred source on Google