Could 22-Year-Old Joe Elbis Debut For the Diamondbacks in 2025?

One of the D-backs' most exciting pitching prospects could push to the majors

Feb 21, 2022; Scottsdale, Ariz., U.S.; Diamondbacks minor league pitcher Joe Elbis runs during a select training camp for minor-league players not covered by the Players Association at Salt River Fields. MLB continues to be in a lockout after the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement Dec. 2. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic Baseball Diamondbacks Select Minor League Camp | Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

An exciting name for the Diamondbacks in 2025 is right-hander Joe Elbis. He comes in next on our 2025 projection series. The below projections utilize a composite average of ZiPS and Steamerprojections, prorated to our own playing time estimates.

Joe Elbis, RHP, Age 22

Joe Elbis is quickly becoming one of the Diamondbacks' most exciting pitching prospects. 2024 was a big year for the 22-year-old righty. Over the past year he has developed rapidly and has earned himself quite a bit of hardware, and multiple promotions.

In 2024 alone he graduated from High-A Hillsboro to Double-A Amarillo with the Sod Poodles, and in that time earned himself Northwestern League Pitcher of the Month in May and Diamondbacks MiLB Pitcher of the Month in June.

Things grew even more promising for Elbis after season's end when he was added to Arizona's 40 man roster. This places him among a group of a select few prospects that can be called upon at any point in the season without an additional move being made.

Elbis, even at such a young age, now figures to be a potential major league option, and the projections agree.

Joe Elbis stats and projection | Alex D'Agostino | Diamondbacks On SI

Why Elbis may outperform projections

The young right-hander has managed to improve and adjust to every new environment he has been thrown into. While Elbis has had to overcome very pitcher-friendly parks to this point in his career, he has found ways to work past this.

In 2023 his first 10 starts were dominant, pitching to a 1.76 ERA during that span. 2024 started similarily, with a 2.79 ERA in 16 starts. If Elbis is able to hit the ground running when he does eventually find his way to the big leagues, there is precedent to him having solid first.

While he is projected to pitch 7 innings in 7 games in 2025, Elbis has been primarily a starter in his career, having started in 61 of 63 professional appearances.

The Diamondbacks will likely promote the young right-hander to Triple-A Reno before ever sending him to the majors, and there the team will make any adjustments, and perhaps test him in a reliever role.

Still, as he stands, Elbis could be used as a starter, and therefore pitch far more innings, something he has been successful at in his young professional career.

He has surpassed 115 innings in each of the last two seasons, averaging over 5.2 innings per start over that span.

Why Elbis may underperform projections

One potential point of concern that has come up multiple times already are Elbis' strikeout rates. While he has successfully rebounded in this category throughout his career, he has still found himself struggling in K/BB ratio.

At the tail end of 2023 after earning his promotion to Hillsboro, Elbis faced significant issues, seeing his ERA balloon to a 4.84, and his K/BB rate most concerningly falling to a 1.66 ratio.

While he would recover this mark in early 2024, pitching to a 2.59 strikeout to walk rate, this issue has already arisen once again at the AA level.

With Amarillo in 2024, Elbis' BB/9 has risen from to 3.6. This is far worse than his 2.9 mark earlier last year pitching with Hilsboro, and the strikeout rates follow a similar pattern, declining as soon as he reaches the next level of competition.

His K/BB ratio overall in 2024 fell from 2.59 to 2.06 after his move to the next level.

While he has managed to rebound before, it will certainly be a point of observation in early 2025 to see if he is once again able to generate strikeouts and limit the free passes before there is any consideration of promotion.

While he has been added to the 40-man roster his inconsistency will need to be overcome. Showing his ability to overcome is strong, but he will need to display repeatability in his dominance, not just flashes of briliance.

Summary

At only 22 years of age the Venezuelan native will have plenty of time to find his footing and prove his abilities. Now on the D-backs' 40-man roster, the pressure will certainly be increased, but the rewards for increased performance will also grow exponentially.

The Diamondbacks have noticed Elbis' high potential and they will want to take advantage of the promise he has displayed. If he is able to reel in his walk rate, and prove he is able to dominate hitters no matter the level, he will find himself at Chase Field in no time.

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