Will Brandon Pfaadt Become a Front-Line Starter in 2025?

The young D-backs workhorse could step towards the front of Arizona's rotation

Apr 22, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The next installment in our player projection saga focuses on Brandon Pfaadt, the D-backs' young right-hander. The projections below utilize a composite average of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our own playing time estimates.

Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Age 26

Brandon Pfaadt career statistics and 2025 projection | Jack Sommers | Diamondbacks On SI

Why Pfaadt may outperform projections

Brandon Pfaadt is a workhorse. Out of all of the Diamondbacks' starters in 2024 he pitched the most innings by far with 181.2. At the young age of 26 he has been durable and effective both in the minor leagues, and during his two years at a major league level.

Even in his rookie season in 2023 Pfaadt posted 96 inning despite bouncing between the majors and minors and facing significant struggles. The projected number of 127 IP is certainly a conservative estimate, and one that the right hander should blow past if he is in the majors and stays healthy.

Preventing walks has been another excellent part of Pfaadt's game in his young career. While there have only been two seasons of precedent set, he has been phenomenal in both. The right-hander has taken a step forward in consecutive years now, stepping from a 6.2 to 5.5% in BB%.

Projections keep him around the same mark with a 5.6% walk rate only slightly worse than his great marks in 2024. As he is still developing as a pitcher he could quite possibly take another slight step forwards in limiting free passes and establishing a pattern of improvement.

The right-hander has also faced plenty of bad batted-ball luck in his couple of seasons in the league. Last year Pfaadt's ERA was not much to look at, sitting at 4.71. Meanwhile, his FIP sat at a substantially better 3.61.

This difference implies that Pfaadt might have been a better pitcher than his overall results show. If he takes a step forward with his consistency of execution, gets a bit luckier and doesn't have to pitch quite as many innings as he did in 2024, he might be an even better arm than his projections expect.

Why Pfaadt may underperform projections

Pfaadt's projections are far kinder for 2025, closing the gap to a 3.92 ERA, and 3.72 FIP. While the difference between the two still remains, this would be a monumentous step forward for Pfaadt.

The ERA jump in particular is a massive leap. This not only seems unrealistic but would symbolize a great improvement in the whole club if one of the team's most durable and present figures can take such a step forward.

The closing of the FIP gap which has been such a pertinent staple in Pfaadt's stat pages so far in his career would be a surprise as well. While decrease in this metric should be almost certain, as a full run of difference is almost completely unsustainable, going from a difference of that magnitude to a separation of only .020 seems implausible.

Pfaadt has displayed an excellent ability to throw strikes, but frequently said strikes can hang in the zone, which can lead to hard contact and a level of inconsistency. If he's unable to execute his pitches at a high level and keep them around the edges of the zone, his numbers could balloon above what is a somewhat generous projection.

Summary

Brandon Pfaadt could be slated for a massive step forward next season. His durability as a starter is a key representation of who he is as a pitcher, and his ability to keep the ball in the strike zone is a testament to his ability as a young arm.

While the pitching staff as a whole has now grown in both number and talent, Pfaadt has garnered a bit of protection around him. With Corbin Burnes now headlining the bunch alongside Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, this could leave Pfaadt to round out the rotation, giving him quite a bit of room to improve his game without feeling that the day-to-day fate of the team relies on him.

He could very well surpass his projections across the board, as a young arm with lots of potential that could be unlocked at any moment. Still, some of these metrics should be approached from a conservative viewpoint, seeing as he does still have plenty of time to find himself and see what he can truly bring to the table for the D-backs.

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