MLB Makes Bold Prediction About Diamondbacks Playoff Odds

For the first time since 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks aren't heading into a season with high expectations. That might be a good thing, considering they've disappointingly missed the postseason in back-to-back years, despite being expected to land among MLB's top clubs.

With a down year behind them, and a plethora of key players still recovering from devastating injuries, the D-backs' playoff odds per FanGraphs sit at just 31.6% — which may by itself seem somewhat generous.

But according to MLB.com's Jared Greenspan, Arizona is one of the teams who could find a way to smash their playoff odds and make a return to the postseason, after all, and he broke down how that could happen.

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How Arizona Diamondbacks Can Overcome Playoff Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo is sprayed with champagne during celebrations after clinching a wild-card playoff spot following their game with the Houston Astros at Chase Field on Sept. 30, 2023. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Greenspan, unsurprisingly, pointed to an unstable and previously-underperforming pitching staff as the largest reason for Arizona's low playoff chances.

"Pitching looms as the biggest question mark in the desert. Arizona’s best bullpen arms -- Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk -- are each expected to miss a significant portion of the upcoming season while recovering from major elbow surgery. The D-backs had the fourth-highest bullpen ERA (4.82) last season, and FanGraphs ranks the team’s relievers T-27th in projected WAR (1.2)," Greenspan wrote.

But as Diamondbacks fans well know, Arizona's offense is one that has often propelled them beyond the results of poor pitching. A superstar trio at the top of their order with some timely knocks further down has made up one of the top five offenses in baseball in back-to-back seasons.

"After surviving a relentless swarm of trade rumors, Ketel Marte will begin the 2026 season in Arizona. That keeps one of the league’s best top-of-the-order trios intact in Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo. FanGraphs projects each player to clear the 4-WAR threshold in 2026; the D-backs are one of just three teams (along with the Dodgers and the Mets) with three position players projected to accumulate at least 4.0 WAR," Greenspan continued.

"At minimum, that trio could propel Arizona towards its first postseason berth since winning the NL pennant in 2023. Healthy and productive seasons from Gabriel Moreno (117 wRC+ in 83 games) and Pavin Smith (123 wRC+ in 87 games) wouldn't hurt, either."

Greenspan also pointed to the returns of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, with Corbin Burnes also set to return mid-season. In terms of the rotation, the D-backs could see a massive bounce-back.

It will be the bullpen serving as largest x-factor, in a number of ways. The D-backs are highly capable of taking (and extending) leads, but their late-inning relief work has all-too-frequently relinquished that lead at the most critical of times.