D-backs Shouldn't Be Concerned About Merrill Kelly's Slow Start — Yet

It certainly doesn't look good for Merrill Kelly right now, but there's a reason to believe he'll be alright.

Apr 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

For the second season in a row, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly holds an ERA north of 9.00 after his second start of the year.

Kelly was blown up by the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night, giving up eight earned runs over 4.1 innings, including three straight solo home runs in the second inning. Seven of his eight runs came between innings one and two.

"Just a bad day. I mean really, just a bad couple innings, bad couple batters," Kelly told reporters after the game. "Second one back, hopefully we learn from it, we build on it, and hopefully we have another 20-something, 30-something to go."

Kelly, of course, was pushed back from his normal start to the 2026 season due to intercostal nerve irritation in his lower back. He was placed on the IL, and made his season debut on April 14.

But the 37-year-old veteran has not quite looked like himself so far. He threw only 56 of an astounding 101 pitches for strikes Tuesday night — and when he was in the zone, his pitches were hammered.

After a four-walk performance in his first start, the concern level has begun to grow. But, although it certainly is worth keeping an eye on, there is still reason to believe Kelly's season may take an extreme turn for the positive — for now.

Here's why:

Why Merrill Kelly's poor start to season isn't concerning — yet

Apr 14, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers during the fourth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

In Kelly's first start of 2026, he pitched 5.1 innings against the Baltimore Orioles with two earned runs allowed, picking up the win despite walking four batters.

And a year ago, a fully healthy Kelly made his 2025 season debut to the tune of 5.1 innings, with one earned run and the win over the Chicago Cubs — despite walking four batters and striking out only one.

Meanwhile, in his second start of last season, Kelly was blown up for nine earned runs in 3.2 innings — including three home runs — against the Yankees, which shot his ERA up to 10.00 and spurred on conversations about his future.

Kelly's first two starts of 2026 have been eerily similar — nearly identical, in fact.

Merrill Kelly, 2025

First start: 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB
Second start: 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 3 HR

Merrill Kelly, 2026

First start: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB
Second start: 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 HR

— Alex D’Agostino (@AlexDagAZ) April 22, 2026

Following his first two starts of 2025, Kelly went on to deliver a 2.71 ERA over 20 appearances, prior to his trade to the Texas Rangers at the Deadline. He finished 2025 with a 3.52 ERA and 12 wins.

His ERA with Arizona was 3.22 prior to the trade. If he'd held that for the duration of the season, it would have been the best ERA of his career, excluding the covid-shortened 2020 campaign in which he made only five starts.

So while it's never exactly not concerning to watch a starter (particularly one of Kelly's age) struggle with command and hard contact, Kelly has displayed a similar trend in the past, only to settle back in to his consistent, reliable self.

Why Merrill Kelly's slow start might become more concerning

Mar 18, 2026; Salt River Pima-Maricopa, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Where the concern does lie, however, is in Kelly's command. The right-hander has made a living in his career off landing the ball on the edge of the zone, rather than velocity or high movement.

That has not been the case this season, in which he's thrown only around 55% of his pitches for strikes. In his parallel start to 2025, he threw nearly 61% of his first 165 pitches for strikes.

"He sprayed the ball around [Tuesday night]," manager Torey Lovullo said. "And he's normally really good on the edges and just couldn't find a rhythm. I think the changeup was a little inconsistent. He couldn't get to his cut fastball."

Whether that lack of command suggests that Kelly's age-37 season may be taking a turn for the worse, or simply that he might have needed one more rehab start to sharpen his arsenal remains to be seen.

Lovullo thinks that command will come as he continues to find his rhythm.

"It's gonna take a little bit of time for him, I get it. He spoils us when it gets moving in a really good direction. It's like 12, 14 pitches an inning," Lovullo said.

The good news, regardless of result, is Kelly felt physically solid enough to throw 101 pitches, and reported feeling "fine" after the game. He, himself, insisted on going back out for the fifth inning despite his already-high pitch count.

"I wanted to [go back out]," Kelly said. "They asked me if I was okay after the fourth. And I said, 'Yeah, I'm ready to go back out for another.'"

Lovullo said he "appreciated what [Kelly] did," in that regard.

"I went to him and talked to him between the fourth and fifth, and he said, 'I know I need to get through this inning for you guys. I'm good, I'll go out there and get the job done.' ... He went as far as he could, but he couldn't get those last two outs of the fifth," Lovullo said.

Kelly is not out of the woods simply because of a similar pattern to last season. Regression can strike hard as a pitcher ages into his upper 30s, and if Kelly is unable to sharpen his command somewhat soon, more lopsided performances may be coming.

But his nickname is "mainstay" for a reason. As he settles in to his late start to the year, it would be very on-brand to see Kelly level out to his underrated, ever-consistent self.