D-backs' Rest-of-Season Pitching Projections Don't Provide Much Hope

The Arizona Diamondbacks have stumbled to a 3-9 record in their last 12 games, dropping their overall season record to 16-17. The main culprit has been been the starting rotation. They are a combined 1-7 with a 10.10 ERA while posting just 49 innings, or just 4.1 per start.

The bullpen, meanwhile, has a 5.17 ERA in 54 innings during this stretch. But 17 of the 31 earned runs allowed have been from mop-up men Andrew Hoffmann (9) and Brandon Pfaadt (8).

For the full season, year-to-date, that has left the D-backs in 29th place overall with a 5.16 ERA, including an MLB-worst 5.42 from the rotation and a 24th-ranked bullpen, which sports a 4.83 ERA.

Apr 19, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The question now facing the team is whether or not they can be expected to improve from here. What matters most is what happens next, and how they pitch going forward. To get an idea what that may look like, we turn to the projections.

The projections in the tables below come from FanGraphs' Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections. These are derived by averaging Steamer and ZiPS projections.

Rest of Season ERA Projections for D-backs Rotation

While the projections call for significant improvement to the ERA coming from four of the five rotation members, it's notable that none of them are projected to post a sub-four ERA at this point.

The projections range from a low of Michael Soroka (4.04) to a high of 4.36 for Eduardo Rodriguez. Zac Gallen (4.09), Merrill Kelly (4.25) and Ryne Nelson (4.29) slot in between.

The composite 4.21 ERA would rank 18th in MLB in placed in the current team starting pitching leaderboard. Better for sure, but a ceiling of barely-middle-of-the-pack is not what the team was expecting, either.

The D-backs invested $109 million in their rotation for 2026, including injured starter Corbin Burnes, and before deferrals are taken into account. That represents roughly 55% of their total payroll just in the rotation.

Rest of Season ERA Projections for Current Bullpen

Rest of Season ERA Projections for Current D-backs Bullpen | Jack Sommers

The current iteration of the bullpen is surely to undergo frequent changes as pitchers are shuffled up and down between Triple-A Reno and the injured list. Three pitchers are projected to have sub-four ERA, including Jonathan Loáisiga, Kevin Ginkel and Juan Morillo.

The composite 4.02 ERA would also be a middle-of-the-pack bullpen ERA. That is also the absolute upside however, as there will always be ineffective relievers that give up runs in bunches that get optioned out or placed on the IL.

ERA Projections for D-backs Injured Pitchers

The Diamondbacks had the misfortune to see three of their main pitchers suffer elbow injuries mid-season 2025, requiring surgery.

Lefty A.J. Puk (projected 3.48 ERA) is due back sometime in mid-June. Starter Corbin Burnes (3.85) hopes to be back by the All-Star break in mid-July. Justin Martinez (3.13) is not due back until mid-August at the earliest.

There is no doubt that losing these three pitchers not only severely damaged the D-backs in 2025, but put a major crimp in their 2026 plans as well.

While the projections for these pitchers would be the best on the team, the fact is pitchers coming back from injury usually need a while to get in a groove. Early returns are seldom going to meet the projections, which have no way to account for injury recovery.

ERA Projections for D-backs Minor Leaguers

Projections for minor league pitchers are the least reliable of all. The D-backs have two starting pitching candidates that could be considered based on projections, Mitch Bratt (4.36) and Kohl Drake (4.63). But Drake has an 8.78 ERA in Reno and is struggling with a 2-3 MPH velocity drop.

Bratt, on the other hand, has a 2.63 ERA in the supercharged run environment of the PCL. Even his FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching number of 4.40 is roughly 20% better than league average when ballpark and league averages taken into account.

Three of the relievers on this list, Taylor Rashi, Andrew Hoffmann, and Phillip Abner, have all pitched in MLB this year and have ERA between 7.71 and 9.82.

Two names to keep an eye on as next in line for call ups would be Kade Strowd (4.13 projection) and Yilber Diaz (4.35 projection). Both of them are excelling in Reno, posting 1.54 and 1.15 ERA respectively so far.

Conclusion

May 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws the ball against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks pitching has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league for the last six years in total. Since 2020 they rank 28th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. Their 29th overall ranking in 2026 is right in line with the history of the first half of this decade.

Stepping back from the carnage of the last couple of weeks and looking at the projections gives some hope for some improvement.

At the same time, the absolute ceiling for this pitching staff appears to be league-average at best, and that's if everything goes right from here on out and there are minimal injuries.

For further discussion of this topic, be sure to check out the Snakes Territory Podcast where Jesse Friedman and I went into a detailed breakdown of all these tables.

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