How The Diamondbacks Can Extend Gabriel Moreno — But Should They?

Breaking down a potential Moreno extension — and its pros and cons.

Aug 29, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) walks off the field after the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gabriel Moreno is coming off a fabulous and historic season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. His stellar defense was on display all season, as it usually is. After all, he was the NL Gold Glove winner in 2023, and continues to shine behind the plate.

But it was the breakout offensively that caught people's attention. Moreno was the first ever Arizona Diamondback to win a batting title, leading the National League with a .311 mark and finishing one point ahead of Luis Arraez.

Far from an empty batting average, Moreno added 61 walks and 50 extra-base hits, including 16 homers, resulting in an impressive .874 OPS, which was the fifth highest in the NL. Moreno's 6.7 Baseball-Reference WAR and 5.4 FanGraphs WAR were both the highest figures for any catcher in MLB. He was the clear-cut team MVP, and should place in the top five in MVP voting this year.

With two years of arbitration-eligible team control, the question of how (or should) the Diamondbacks extend Moreno is a popular one among fans and pundits alike.

Examining a Possible Gabriel Moreno Contract Extension

Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno speaks with the media as he clears out his locker for the season at Chase Field on Sept. 28, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Diamondbacks signed young star shortstop Geraldo Perdomo on February 18, 2025 to a four-year, $45 million extension. Pitcher Brandon Pfaadt was inked to a five-year, $45 million extension on March 28 of that same year.

Both deals bought out the remaining arbitration years and tacked on a few what would have been their initial free agency years.

If the Diamondbacks were offering a similar type of extension to Moreno at that time, he likely turned it down and opted to go year-by-year through the arbitration process. Coming off the fabulous season he just had, it appears that gamble has paid off for Moreno, at least for now.

Moreno is expected to get between $6-$6.5 million in arbitration for 2027. Service time alone will bump him up to $9 million at least by 2028, and a repeat of his 2026 would push that even higher. So Moreno will likely earn at least $15 million over his final two arbitration seasons. Remember that number.

The table below summarizes Moreno's Diamondbacks career from 2023-2026 in WAR terms. aWAR represents the average of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR. The four-year average is shown, as is a "weighted" average.

Gabriel Moreno aWAR 2023-26 with average and weighted average | Jack Sommers

Weighted averages are used for projecting future performance. In this case, the weights are 4, 3, 2, 1, weighting the most recent 2026 season 40%, 2025 season 30%, and so on. Using this method, the starting point for Moreno would then be roughly 4-WAR.

Projecting Moreno Going Forward

From there, we then need to project Moreno's production and create a salary structure to match. Applying catcher aging curve, we would reduce his 2027 WAR projection from 4 to 3.5, and then reduce by 0.5 WAR each season through the 2032, which is Moreno's age-32 season. One WAR is valued at $9 million for the purpose of this exercise.

Gabriel Moreno WAR and $ projections | Jack Sommers

The above deal calls for Moreno to earn the same salary as he would via arbitration over the first two years ($15 million total) and then a $23 million per season as a base salary. It also includes a $3 million signing bonus (prorated to $500,000 throughout the life of the deal) bringing the total guaranteed amount to $110 million over six years.

That is just $11.5 million under the $121.5 million projected value to be produced. The Diamondbacks and Moreno could bridge that gap with plate appearance incentives, incentives for awards voting placements, and perhaps a 2033 option with a buyout.

Pros and Cons of a 6 year, $110 Million Guarantee

Sep 24, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks designated hitter Gabriel Moreno (14) celebrates his three-run home run in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

From Moreno's side, he may wish to continue to bet on himself staying healthy and producing at this level for another two years. If he were able to post similar numbers through 2027 and 2028 while playing a full, or close to full season, then his free agency value would skyrocket beyond the value presented here.

On the other hand, Moreno has had at least one injured list stint in each of the last four seasons. Dating back to 2023, shoulder, thumb, groin, hand, and an oblique injury in 2026 have combined to cost 158 days on the injured list over four seasons.

The deal outlined above already factors in some missed time, as can be seen in the PA projections. So there is less risk from the team's side if they are able to secure such a deal. However, owner Ken Kendrick recently said the team was lowering payroll.

The deal outlined above does not increase the 2027 payroll, as it shows Moreno getting the same amount as he would in arbitration.

However almost half of the value Moreno is projected to produce comes in the first two years (6.5 WAR, $59 million value). The team would just be paying him $16 million. That gives them an excess value of $43 million across the first two years. That's value the team can garner without extending him.

By the time the would-be free agency years of 2029-2032 kick in, Moreno is projected to produce just $63 million against $94 million in salary, for a net loss of -$31 million. The only way to make that part of the calculation even out is to subjectively increase Moreno's WAR projection over those four years by 3 WAR.

And that is the risk for the Diamondbacks. Do they want to bet on good health for Moreno as he ages and needs to catch less and less and DH more and more? Are they willing to pay for past performance into Moreno's thirties?

These are not easy decisions for either Moreno or the team. But players of this caliber, and popularity with the fans, don't grow on trees. The Diamondbacks are likely to need to roll the dice here and go a bit beyond their comfort zone. Whether they'll go far enough to entice Moreno to sign on the dotted line is an unknown of course.