Mariners Get A Promising Bryce Miller Injury Update With Big Rotation Implications

Miller is moving toward a return, and Hancock is making sure nobody rushes the decision.

Bryce Miller (50) throws during a Spring Training workout at Peoria Sports Complex. | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

The latest Bryce Miller update gives the Mariners something tangible to work with. After spending the early part of the season on the injured list with left oblique inflammation, Miller threw a bullpen session on April 12 that Dan Wilson said went “very, very well,” and MLB.com reported that he could rejoin the team in Seattle during the upcoming homestand as a precursor to a minor-league rehab assignment. It looks like the Mariners are finally looking at an actual runway instead of a holding pattern. 

Miller is supposed to be one of the core pieces in this rotation, and Seattle still appears to be treating him that way. The Mariners noted that the expectation is for Miller to rejoin the club for in-person consultation during the April 17-22 homestand, with a rehab assignment likely to follow and a possible return by the end of April.

Mariners Get A Timely Bryce Miller Update As Emerson Hancock Keeps Turning Heads

The better Miller’s outlook gets, the messier the rotation conversation becomes. Because while Miller has been working his way back, Emerson Hancock has been making this whole thing a lot less tidy than anyone expected. He opened the season by throwing six hitless innings with a career-high nine strikeouts against Cleveland, then followed that by allowing just one earned run through his first 12 2/3 innings. Through three starts, Hancock owns a 2.04 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. 

His stuff backs it up enough that this doesn’t feel totally fluky. Hancock’s early breakout has been more than just a hot stretch, he’s posting a 2.38 FIP, and a strikeout rate north of thirty percent. More importantly, one-third of his pitches in last outing against the Astros were sweepers, which is a big deal because that pitch barely existed in this form for him a couple years ago. 

Hitters have looked uncomfortable against the fastball-sweeper combination, and the velocity gap is part of why. Hancock’s four-seamer has averaged 94.5 mph this season, while the sweeper is sitting at 77.9. That’s a 16.6 mph separation, which is plenty nasty on its own, and the pitch-level results have been excellent so far. Opponents had a .167 batting average against the four-seamer and essentially nothing against the sweeper in the early sample, with the sweeper producing a 32.1 percent whiff rate and a 55.6 percent strikeout rate in plate appearances ending on that pitch. 

The obvious move when Miller is ready is still Hancock going back down. That’s just how options work, and it’s the cleanest roster mechanism available. But clean on paper and easy in practice are not the same thing. Miller still likely needs multiple rehab starts to build back toward five or six innings and around 80 to 90 pitches, which should buy Hancock at least a couple more chances to keep making this uncomfortable. 

And that’s where this gets interesting. If Hancock cools off, the decision makes itself. Miller comes back, Hancock heads to Tacoma, everybody nods and moves on. But if Hancock keeps missing bats, the Mariners are going to have a much more annoying problem on their hands. Which is the kind of problem good teams are supposed to have.