Seattle Mariners Playoff Odds are Better Than You Think
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The Seattle Mariners enter play on Friday at 41-39 through 80 games. They are 6.5 games back in the American League West, but they currently own the third and final wild card spot in the American League as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2022.
While most fans are likely frustrated by the team's stretch of inconsistent play, the playoff odds are better than you probably think they are, according to Fangraphs.
Team | Record | WC Odds | Overall Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
MARINERS | 41-39 | 40.3 | 53.9 |
Rays | 46-35 | 56.6 | 79.0 |
Blue Jays | 43-37 | 47.1 | 56.1 |
Red Sox | 40-42 | 15.5 | 16.8 |
Guardians | 40-39 | 28.2 | 31.9 |
Twins | 39-42 | 25.6 | 28.9 |
Royals | 38-43 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
Rangers | 40-41 | 18.8 | 23.0 |
Angels | 40-40 | 6.6 | 7.6 |
Thus, at 53.9 percent, the Mariners are squarely in position to battle for a playoff spot, and Fangraphs projects them to squarely be in the mix for as high as the second wild card spot, which again, might surprise some people.
(I do want to issue an apology for a slight misspeak on Friday's Refuse to Lose podcast, where I said that the M's and Rays have almost identical playoff odds - they do not).
American League Wild Card Race 👀 pic.twitter.com/qwPt1ovY7E
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 27, 2025
If the Mariners are going to make the playoffs and make these odds a reality, they will have to figure out a way get more consistent in all facets. The starting pitching needs to be better and go deeper into games, while the offense has to figure out a way to sustain momentum. The trade deadline, which looms on July 31, is also an avenue for them to get better.
The M's will be back in action on Friday night against the Rangers with first pitch coming at 5:05 p.m. PT. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) will pitch against Logan Gilbert (SEA).
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