Where Mets rank on Baseball Reference’s World Series odds list

The Mets have the best record in baseball entering the last week of April but they aren't currently on top of Baseball Reference's odds to win the World Series.

Apr 29, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets designated hitter Starling Marte (6) and right fielder Juan Soto (22) celebrate after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The end of April has arrived and the New York Mets are as well positioned to make the playoffs as any team in baseball. While there is still a long way to go between now and October, the Mets enter the day with the best record in the majors and a chance to break the National League record for most wins in the month of April.

The Mets have tied the NL record for most wins in the month of April with 19! pic.twitter.com/XLT75qBtGj

— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) April 30, 2025

A strong start like this puts the Mets in a good position to weather any slumps they may encounter over the course of a 162-game season. However, while they have the league's strongest record at this point even without two key starting pitchers in Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Baseball Reference's predictive model only has them with the third best shot to win the World Series at this point.

Baseball Reference's current odds to win the 2025 World Series, based on their Simple Rating System 👀

What do you think of these odds? @baseball_ref pic.twitter.com/vXG7h2FvDI

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 29, 2025

Baseball Reference's model is called the Simple Rating System, and it judges teams based on two key criteria: run differential and strength of schedule. While the Mets lead the league with a +55 run differential through their first 29 games, they are likely getting dinged on the strength of schedule figure since they have only played 10 games against teams that are .500 or better (Philadelphia, Houston, the Athletics and Arizona).

Read More: Mets top MLB.com's power rankings for the first time this season

While it is fair to say that the Mets haven't played the toughest schedule to date, a big reason why so many of the teams they've played are below .500 is due to the Mets pummeling them. Toronto and St. Louis are a combined eight games under .500 and the Mets are 7-0 against them, which will help ensure they weigh down New York's strength of schedule tally.

The only teams higher than the Mets on Baseball Reference's World Series odds list are the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers, fellow division leaders who have played tougher schedules than the Mets to this point. With five months left to go, the Mets will have plenty of time to demonstrate their ability to beat elite competition and potentially boost their own odds (at least in Baseball Reference's eyes) even further.