David Stearns Must Take Fewer Risks This Mets Offseason

The New York Mets have had an eventful few days, as a long-lost season has now given their fans an opportunity to shower Pete Alonso with over-the-top love at the expense of the current players. While Alonso's season is still alive for Baltimore, the Mets are officially eliminated from playoff contention and have no one to blame but themselves for their current predicament.

It is true that the Mets had some horrendous injury luck this year, as both Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto missed several months with leg injuries. The Mets also had some moves that looked good in the offseason backfire, as Freddy Peralta never adjusted to New York and Bo Bichette was bad for two months when the season was still salvageable.

There were also a lot of self-inflicted wounds from David Stearns in the offseason as he made a slew of risky decisions that were easy to foresee going wrong. Replacing Alonso with the combination of Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos (with a dash of Brett Baty) looked ill-advised from the start and predictably collapsed into a mess that leaves the Mets in trouble at first base for years to come.

Stearns also decided that Peralta alone was enough to fix the rotation, relying on bounce-back seasons from Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea to fill out the starting five behind Peralta, Nolan McLean, and Clay Holmes. None of them worked out particularly well, with Peterson getting traded, Senga getting demoted to the bullpen, and Manaea providing fifth-starter value for $25 million a year.

Why David Stearns needs to be more risk-averse this offseason

One of the big issues with Stearns' approach to free agency is that he seems extremely hesitant to hand out long-term contracts over concerns about how the back end of the deals will play out. That hesitance also partially explains why the Mets traded away Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, who is a declining player whose contract expires two years before Nimmo's.

The risk on years is one that should be taken in the right circumstances. Alonso's performance this season with the Orioles has shown that Stearns probably should have been more open to giving him a long-term contract, especially since he didn't add a DH, and that spot could've stayed open if Alonso's defensive issues progressed in the coming years.

The risks Stearns does take seem to be one of projection and his belief in the club's player development apparatus, which showed good results in 2024. The Mets received excellent seasons from Luis Severino, Manaea, and Jose Iglesias.

As such, Stearns has bypassed steadier options in free agency in favor of players who are risky in terms of health or performance, hoping they become bargains for the Mets if they perform.

Frankie Montas is one such example, and that deal blew up spectacularly in the Mets' face. Polanco was another because he had a lengthy injury history and little actual experience at first base, with Stearns hoping that behind-the-scenes work with Seattle at the position, as well as a significantly reduced strikeout rate, would portend a breakout.

As a result, the Mets are stuck with a lot of wasted money on their payroll for mid-tier players with questionable track records. If Stearns is going to spend Cohen's money, he should be more willing to be aggressive on players with proven track records, and also not chase projects that could be fun to fix and hit big if everything breaks right.

The prime example of a smart risk would be paying up for Tarik Skubal, a proven ace who is still in his prime. Paying around $50 million a year for Skubal, a more proven option, would be a smarter play than spending a combined $50 million per year on shorter-term deals on aging veterans like Kevin Gausman or injury risks like Shane Bieber.

Limiting risk also means being more realistic about the flaws of the current players on the roster. Also, not just hoping another offseason can crack the code. In the current Mets' case, it would mean not banking on Vientos as a DH option for another year because he can occasionally homer against left-handed pitching, or being open to moving Francisco Alvarez because he has not progressed in the past few seasons.

Sometimes the safe moves aren't the sexiest ones, but they are safe for a reason. If the Mets had bypassed Polanco to replace Alonso with Ryan O'Hearn and traded for Willson Contreras, two options that were open to them, they would have added a combined 46 home runs and 151 RBI to the current roster, which is a better way to replace Alonso in aggregate than the 15 and 45 they got from Polanco and Vientos.

Some of the moves Stearns has pursued feel a bit galaxy-brained in that if everything hits, the Mets' ceiling would be incredibly high. The problem is that the obvious flaws in those options lower the Mets' floor, something we've seen exposed in each of the past two seasons and a tactic Stearns needs to lessen as he builds the team this winter.

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