Should Bo Stay or Should Bo Go? Analyzing Bo Bichette's Opt-Out Decision

Bo Bichette has an intriguing opt-out decision to make. The Mets' third baseman has a lot of factors to consider before he makes an $84 million decision.

Bo Bichette is staring down a major contract decision with the Mets. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The New York Mets have just two weeks to go in the regular season and an active trade deadline cleared out most of David Stearns' key offseason decisions. The one intriguing free-agent possibility could come from Bo Bichette, who has the ability to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.

Bichette's deal pays him $42 million per year through 2028 but also contains the ability to get out of the deal after each of the 2026 and 2027 seasons. The opt-out requires the Mets to pay him $5 million, but the bigger call would result in him foregoing about $79 million if he decides to test the free agent waters this winter.

There has been mixed reporting about what Bichette may do with his opt-out, with ESPN's Jeff Passan recently saying he expects Bichette to opt out while The Athletic's Will Sammon thinks Bichette stays. Sammon also noted in his story that Bichette is expected to decide his future during the month of October, utilizing the window before the end of the World Series to decide what to do with his deal.

The Mets would certainly have a tough time replacing Bichette if he opts out, with Japanese infielder Teruaki Sato being one potential option since most of the team's deadline acquisitions aren't quite ready for the majors yet. Let's look at the scenario from Bichette's perspective and see what could factor into his decision.

Why Bo Bichette should opt out

The simple fact is that even in a down year Bichette would have a chance to be the best position player on the free-agent market. The top hitters at this point (outside of Sato) are Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena, Cubs outfielder/DH Seiya Suzuki, Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe and Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm.

Bichette would be a free agent again at age 28 and would not have a qualifying offer attached to him, positioning him to secure a long-term deal that could take him through his mid-30s. The fact that Bichette also looks solid defensively at third base could expand his market since he can potentially be a solution at three different infield positions (third base, shortstop and second base after his 2025 World Series cameo there).

Why Bo Bichette should not opt out

Even if Bichette's counting stats look good at the end of the year, his batting average (.263 entering Monday) and OPS (.707 entering Monday) are significantly down compared to his career norms. While they aren't quite as bad as in the disastrous 2024 season, when Bichette hit just .225 with a .598 OPS, it is a second "down" year in three seasons.

The looming lockout could also be a problem for Bichette, who would be foregoing a lot of money to potentially see the free agent market shut down for a few months on December 1. If Bichette is going to opt out of his contract he needs to be pretty sure he can beat $84 million guaranteed on his next deal, which may not be a lock given his so-so performance this year.

What is Bo Bichette's best decision?

The best call for Bichette is likely to opt in and hope to post a good full year with the Mets before opting out of the final year of his deal. At that point Bichette would only be passing up $42 million, which he could likely beat even on a short-term deal in an offseason that won't be impacted by a lockout.

The free-agent class after 2027 isn't particularly strong either with Ozzie Albies, William Contreras, an aging Freddie Freeman, Munetaka Murakami and Steven Kwan projected to be the top free agents available. Bichette would still not have a qualifying offer attached and could be in line for a huge payday if he carries the form he displayed from June onward over the course of a full season.

The call facing Bichette won't be easy, however, and he will likely take most of October to reach a decision. The Mets are definitely a better team for 2027 with Bichette on it so they will likely hope he opts in or could look to re-sign him if he does opt out.

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