Pete Alonso's Return to Citi Field Offers Reflection Point for Mets & Polar Bear

There are just two weeks left in the regular season for the New York Mets, and the playoffs aren't happening. This leaves a few storylines to enjoy over the last 13 games of the year. One of the big ones is reunions with old friends, starting Monday night when Pete Alonso returns to Citi Field with the Baltimore Orioles.

Perhaps the most controversial offseason decision from David Stearns was his call to let Alonso walk without putting up much of a fight. The Orioles gave Alonso the long-term deal he had been seeking, signing him to a five-year, $155 million contract. Meanwhile, the Mets mishandled their first base replacement plan, seeing Jorge Polanco play only a handful of games there before Achilles tendinitis short-circuited his season.

While Jared Young has been a solid starter for the Mets in the second half, he hasn't come close to matching the power production Alonso typically provides. A second-half heater has put Alonso in line with his typical career norms as he enters this series batting .269 with 35 home runs, 100 RBI, and an .863 OPS in 150 games.

Where Pete Alonso and Mets stand after their breakup

Despite Alonso's stellar offensive season, which has been worth 4.2 Wins Above Replacement for the Orioles, Baltimore is likely to miss the postseason anyway. The Orioles dropped to 72-78 after losing two out of three to Toronto over the weekend, leaving them four games out of the final wild-card spot in the American League with two weeks to go.

The only reason Baltimore is that close to the playoffs is due to the weakness of the AL, where the final wild-card spot is currently held by the Cleveland Guardians (76-74). If Baltimore were playing in the National League, they would be completely buried nine games behind the San Diego Padres.

While Alonso's presence has certainly helped the Orioles stay alive for as long as they have, it is a net negative for Baltimore to squander the first year of his deal with a missed postseason. It is also important to note that while Alonso has lived up to his offensive numbers so far, his bat speed has dropped by nearly 10 percent according to Baseball Savant, which could be a problem if it continues to dip as the deal ages.

There is also no doubt that the 2026 Mets would have been better with Alonso, and there is a strong chance the 2027 Mets also would be better with him around. The issue is that Alonso, by himself, would not have been enough to solve the current Mets' issues, which also included significant injuries to Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto as well as underperformance across the board.

Perhaps Stearns could have been more flexible with his stance regarding Alonso. It has become clear that Alonso valued years over higher annual salaries, which made Baltimore a better fit for his desires, and there is also a chance Stearns could be vindicated in the long run if Alonso's performance dips towards the end of the contract.

In the hypothetical world where Alonso stayed, the Mets may have a few more wins on their ledger, but his presence wouldn't get them to the playoffs. A similarly flawed Orioles team is slightly better than the Mets with Alonso, so there's a high likelihood the team's records would be swapped if Alonso had stayed in Flushing.

This series offers Mets fans a chance to show their appreciation for Alonso, who will likely get a large hand in his first return visit to Flushing. There may also be some history on the line in this series as Alonso, along with Lindor, enters sitting at 299 career home runs with a chance to slug a milestone 300th in front of the Citi Field faithful.

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