Looking Back at David Stearns' Rotation Strategy for the Mets (And How He Can Improve It)

The New York Mets' offseason will be critical, as the starting rotation remains a priority to fix heading into next season. David Stearns said in his end-of-season press conference that he needs to add to the rotation, which is nothing new for his tenure with the organization.

That said, seeing the Mets' starting rotation in constant flux is unusual for New York. The Mets have built a reputation for possessing top starting pitching and developing aces who can contend with the best of the sport at their pinnacle.

A decade ago, the Mets had a fully homegrown quintet that never fully panned out. And as recently as 2022, the Mets had a dynamic veteran rotation featuring Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt.

The 2023 season saw the Mets address deGrom's opt-out and departure with a duo of future Hall of Famers, Scherzer and Justin Verlander, leading the group, but the team's flop saw both pitchers traded in the summer fire sale.

Stearns arrived after that point and has taken several different approaches towards building a rotation in Queens, so let's take a year-by-year look at what he did and how it worked out.

2024

Inherited: Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill
Offseason Acquisitions: Luis Severino (1 year, $13 million), Sean Manaea (2 years, $28 million), Adrian Houser (trade from Milwaukee with Tyrone Taylor for RHP Cameron Crow)
In-Season Additions: Christian Scott (minor league promotion), Jose Butto (minor league promotion), Paul Blackburn (trade from the Athletics for RHP Kade Morris)

The Mets were entering what was anticipated to be a transition year for Stearns in 2024. Stearns could look at Senga's strong rookie year in 2023 as a sign that he might have had an in-house ace.

Stearns attempted to make a big play for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, offering the then-25-year-old Japanese right-hander a 12-year, $325 million deal before he accepted a matching offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Yamamoto play was the biggest move Stearns tried in the pitching department, settling for buy-low deals on Severino and Manaea while adding Houser as rotation depth in a deal with his old team. The Mets caught a bad break in spring training when Senga got hurt, resulting in him making only one start all season after hurting his calf in his first game back. But they struck gold with their bets on Severino and Manaea paying off in spades.

Peterson and Megill also offered strong depth while Quintana overcame early struggles to make several playoff starts for the Mets. Scott made his major league debut and looked sharp before undergoing Tommy John surgery, while Blackburn, a mid-season pickup to add to their rotation, made only five starts before getting hurt.

The group gave the Mets everything they had, but significant innings jumps for both Severino and Manaea caught up with them in the NLCS, as both looked flat against the Dodgers. Needless to say, this strategy of inheriting talented pitchers and trying to fix them paid off.

2025

Inherited: Peterson, Megill, Senga, Blackburn
Offseason Additions: Manaea (re-signed for 3 years, $75 million), Clay Holmes (3 years, $38 million), Frankie Montas (2 years, $34 million), Griffin Canning (1 year, $4.25 million)
In-Season Additions: Nolan McLean (minor league promotion), Brandon Sproat (minor league promotion), Jonah Tong (minor league promotion)

With the big-money offseason moves being the addition of Juan Soto and re-signing Pete Alonso, Stearns doubled down on his strategy of signing pitchers he believed the organization could fix. Manaea, whose second-half breakout was considered to be a sign of things to come, was retained on a three-year deal while the Mets added Holmes, Montas, and Canning to give themselves more options.

Injuries started ravaging the group early in spring training as Manaea and Montas got hurt and missed the first few months of the season. The group had success early, but it was smoke and mirrors, as some early breakouts from Canning, Megill, and Senga leveled off before the trio got hurt.

Despite having talented prospects in the upper levels of his farm system, Stearns tried to buy time with his rotation after the Mets built an early division lead. The Mets frittered away winnable games by using spot starters like Brandon Waddell or straight bullpen games to avoid starting service time clocks on the likes of McLean and Sproat, hoping that the eventual returns of Manaea, Montas, and Senga would save the day.

All three returned and struggled to varying degrees, making Stearns' decision not to add a starting pitcher at the deadline confounding. Stearns tried to solve his innings problem (there was a stretch where Peterson was the only starter capable of going six innings for several months) by building a super bullpen to shorten games, only to see that strategy go up in smoke when Ryan Helsley and, to a lesser extent, Gregory Soto didn't live up to the hype.

The youngsters came up towards the back half of the summer, with McLean, Sproat and Tong occupying most of the rotation in September. The moves came too late for New York. The Mets fell a game short of the postseason, with Senga and Manaea looking like shells of themselves and Montas out with Tommy John surgery.

2026

Inherited: Peterson, Senga, Manaea, Holmes, McLean, Tong, Scott
Offseason Additions: Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers (acquired from Milwaukee Brewers for Sproat and Jett Williams)
In-Season Additions: Zac Thornton (minor league promotion), Robert Stock (minor league promotion)

After watching his buy-low strategy backfire in 2025, Stearns decided to take a big swing, trading Sproat and Williams for Peralta, who would be an ace to top the Mets' staff. Myers was targeted for bullpen work with the ability to start if necessary. But Stearns' plan was clearly for Peralta to be the Mets' top starter, while assuming at least one of Peterson, Senga, and Manaea could bounce back to previous performance levels.

However, the entire plan didn't work. The Mets saw Peralta struggle to adjust to New York, Myers lose his command and get sent to the minors several times, and the bounceback candidates all suffer at once. Losing Holmes to a broken leg on a freak play in May didn't help since he was the Mets' best starter at the time. It also exposed the lack of capable replacement options in the upper minors.

With Tong struggling to work on mechanical changes in the minors, the Mets gave Scott and Thornton extended looks in the rotation, with promising results. Meanwhile, New York traded Holmes, Peterson, and Peralta, and Senga showed more promise in the bullpen toward the end of the season.

What can David Stearns learn from his various pitching strategies

The general theme of these transactions has been risk, particularly the belief that the organization can fix any pitcher they get their hands on, or that a small sample size of success is a sign of a breakout.

Stearns indeed avoided the downside risk of long-term deals for aging pitchers. We've most recently seen this with Corbin Burnes, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in his contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. But the Mets have more or less gotten what they've paid for in the pitching market.

The good news for the Mets is that they have a solid foundation to build on. McLean looks like a front-line starter, while Scott, Thornton, and Tong have shown to be capable pieces. Manaea is expected to return for the final year of his contract, while Megill should be back from Tommy John surgery.

Stearns can also feel more confident in his upper-level pitching depth. Jonathan Santucci, Jack Wenninger, Will Watson, and Gary Gill Hill could start games for the Mets in 2027. A youthful approach fits the Mets' historical track record of developing their own pitching, something Stearns has said he wants to return to, but relying on a bunch of young pitchers to gel in the majors at once is a major risk that can be avoided.

The Mets' starting rotation needs clarity about innings next season, which makes targeting Tarik Skubal a no-brainer. Adding a veteran who can give them quality innings in the middle of the rotation would also reduce reliance on multiple young pitchers anchoring rotation spots, which can lead to Stearns' dreaded "uncapped downward scenario" if their development doesn't continue linearly.

In conclusion, there is still value in adding pitching depth, so finding a veteran on a buy-low minor league deal or a low-risk flier like Canning's 2025 contract isn't a bad option. The Mets also need more clarity from starting pitchers, which makes adding proven veterans the way to go this winter.

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