Historic Edwin Diaz contract projection could spell trouble for Mets

The record-breaking sum one insider believes Edwin Diaz will receive this offseason could be a problem for the New York Mets.

Apr 23, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) reacts during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are expected to be one of many teams interested in signing Edwin Diaz in free agency this offseason.

The hope is that the Mets will be among the most likely teams to secure the star closer's services, given that Diaz has been in New York since the 2019 season, and all indications are that he has enjoyed his time in Queens. There's no question he has thrived there, cementing his position as arguably baseball's best reliever.

But that success is exactly why Diaz is going to attract such a sizable market this winter after opting out of the final two years and $38 million of his current contract on November 3, thus making him an unrestricted free agent. In other words, the Mets should not expect they're going to get a hometown discount and should be prepared for a bidding war to ensure that Diaz is anchoring the back end of their bullpen for at least the next several seasons.

Aug 23, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

What Edwin Diaz's Record-Breaking Contract Prediction Means for Mets

There is a lot of interest in just how much money Diaz will command in free agency this winter. Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw reliever Tanner Scott signed a four-year, $72 million deal last offseason, and many feel like Diaz will get somewhere in this range.

The most a reliever has gotten in MLB history is the five-year, $95 million deal Josh Hader got with the Houston Astros in January 2024, which makes for an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $19 million.

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However, New York Post MLB insider Jon Heyman believes Diaz will set a new contract precedent, as he predicted that Diaz would sign a four-year, $80 million deal in free agency in a November 10 article. While Hader's contract is still worth money, the $20 million AAV Diaz would get if this contract projection were to come true would be an MLB record for a reliever.

Heyman also noted that he thinks it's "hard to see" how the Mets don’t bring Diaz back this offseason.

UPDATE

It is "hard" to see how the Mets don’t bring Edwin Diaz back off his outstanding 2025 season, per @JonHeyman #LGM pic.twitter.com/uJvTiw0rAW

— SleeperMets (@SleeperMets) November 10, 2025

This sentiment from Heyman could suggest that the Mets will be willing to give Diaz whatever it takes to re-sign him. This could even mean paying him more than he's worth to ensure they're the top bidder, which is what they did with Juan Soto last year.

While this could spell trouble for the Mets in the long term, it's hard to argue that he isn't worth $20 million per year right now. Therefore, giving Diaz a contract in this record-breaking range this offseason should be a no-brainer for David Stearns.