Mets slugger could face colder than anticipated free agent market again

Will free agency this winter be a repeat of last year for a New York Mets star?

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The New York Mets are going to have some difficult decisions to make this upcoming winter, with clear needs on the roster arising throughout the 2025 season.

For example, the Mets' starting pitching has been an issue, especially their inability to work deep into games. They are in the midst of a historically poor stretch of getting distance from their starters, putting a ton of pressure on the bullpen to perform at its highest level despite being overextended. President of baseball operations David Stearns will certainly be on the lookout for pitching help and it will be interesting to see if he adjusts his strategy of short-term, high-upside deals the team has used in recent years.

Read More: Mets need bullpen to step up with rotation providing historically poor length

However, the same kind of high-upside talent doesn’t exist when it comes to position players, at least in the case of replacing someone as important as first baseman Pete Alonso.

The Mets survived his first foray into free agency last winter, bringing him back on a two-year, $54 million deal that pays him $30 million in 2025 and $24 million in 2026 in the form of a player option. Given the hot start that Alonso got off to, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he would look to hit free agency for a second consecutive winter, seeking the lucrative long-term deal he desires.

Will Pete Alonso cash in as a free agent this offseason?

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Alonso has cooled off considerably after April, with a .768 OPS from May onward; his production was especially poor in July with a .548 OPS.

Nonetheless, his overall numbers are nothing to sneeze at, with Alonso proving once again he is a more than capable run-producer in the middle of the order. He has 26 home runs and 93 RBI with 29 doubles. The 30-year-old's slash line is a more than respectable .264/.350/.511 with a 146 OPS+, which is well above the league average and would be tied for the second-best mark in his career, behind only his historic rookie campaign when he had an OPS+ of 147.

Despite the impressive overall production, expects like Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription required) have observed there is still a chance that Alonso is met with the same kind of cold market in free agency that he faced this past winter. This would set up another potential game of chicken with New York, and may force the slugger to settle for yet another short-term deal with higher AAVs and opt-outs.

Read More: Expert pours cold water on Pete Alonso's free agency outlook

A right-handed hitting first baseman who offers no impact on the basepaths or in the field is amongst the toughest sells in baseball. Alonso’s elite bat with a +17 Batting Run Value is what buoys his value.

But he means more to the Mets as a homegrown star who is on the verge of breaking the franchise's all-time home run record. Set to be 31 years old when Opening Day in 2026 rolls around, he likely has to adjust his expectations in free agency or run the risk of having a repeat of this past offseason.