Sean Manaea Expected to Surpass This Contract; Will Mets Reunite?

The Mets' 2024 left-handed ace may have his market set.

Oct 20, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea (59) pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game six of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

If the New York Mets want to bring 2024 ace Sean Manaea back, there is a magic number that they need to surpass.

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, Manaea is expected by many to surpass the contract that fellow starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi received with the Texas Rangers; Eovaldi, who turns 35 in February, had signed a three-year, $75 million contract on Monday. Morosi noted that Manaea is entering his age-33 season (being younger than the Rangers' ace), threw more innings in 2024 than Eovaldi (181.2 to 170.2), and has a superior adjusted ERA (114 to 104), all of which are valid reasons for a better contract.

LHP Sean Manaea is viewed within the industry as likely to surpass Nathan Eovaldi’s 3-year, $75 million contract.

Manaea is entering his age-33 season. Eovaldi turns 35 in February.

Manaea threw more innings than Eovaldi in 2024, with a better adjusted ERA.@MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 11, 2024

With Manaea's benchmark set, the Mets seemingly have no issues with giving the southpaw what he wants; this even prompted SNY insider Andy Martino to report from the Winter Meetings that there is "increasing optimism" for a reunion.

The 32-year-old Manaea's lone season in Queens was the best of his career in multiple facets. In addition to the personal best mark in innings pitched, the southpaw's 3.47 ERA was the lowest in any full season of his career (he had a 1.21 ERA in 2019, but only pitched 29.2 innings after missing most of that year with injuries); he also struck out 184 batters while walking just 63, and his 2.8 fWAR is the second-best mark he's posted, behind only the 3.3 fWAR in 2021 with the Oakland Athletics.

Due to president of baseball operations David Stearns' approach to building a starting rotation, it doesn't appear likely for the Mets to hand out a long-term contract; the most years they'd likely give Manaea on a deal is three or four. However, with the lefty using Eovaldi's three-year deal as a basis, it appears that he'd be willing to pitch on such a deal if he can get more guaranteed money. Even considering how much New York has spent this offseason, Steve Cohen's near-bottomless pockets make budgets a non-issue.

The mutual interest between Manaea and the Mets is hardly a secret, so if the team is willing to give him a contract that surpasses Eovaldi's in total value, a reunion would be extremely likely.