Why Carson Benge Isn't Getting More NL Rookie of the Year Buzz

It is puzzling that his strong season hasn't led to more award consideration.

Carson Benge's strong rookie season should make him a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year honors. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Mets have been a bit more fun since their trade deadline fire sale, giving their fans a reason to turn on SNY every night as they have played more inspired baseball. One of the keys to that excitement level is the club's strong young outfield, with A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge looking like cornerstone pieces for the future.

An early-season move to the leadoff spot unlocked Benge's offensive game, helping build his confidence before a drop back into the middle of the batting order that gave the lineup a more complete look. Ewing has drawn a ton of hype thanks to his dynamic speed and outstanding defensive play, but Benge has been a steady presence for the Mets since mid-April.

Over the course of the season, Benge has batted .272 with 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, 18 stolen bases, 62 runs scored and a .744 OPS in 115 games. That is very strong production for a 23-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues, which has been worth 2.5 Wins Above Replacement.

Those kinds of numbers should put Benge firmly into the National League Rookie of the Year conversation. Instead, he currently holds the fourth-best odds (+3500) on DraftKings Sportsbook, even trailing teammate Nolan McLean (+3000). The Cardinals' J.J. Wetherholt is currently the runaway leader in the odds (-160), while the Reds' Sal Stewart is the second choice at +130, lightyears ahead of the Mets' pair.

Analyzing why Carson Benge doesn't have better NL ROY odds

The counting stats between Benge and Wetherholt aren't too dissimilar, with the Cardinals' second baseman batting .244 with 16 home runs, 45 RBIs, 12 stolen bases, 75 runs scored and a .729 OPS in 113 games. The big differentiator between the pair appears to be defense, with Wetherholt playing strong defense up the middle and getting the corresponding WAR boost up to 4.3.

That WAR gap, along with the fact that Wetherholt started hot and has helped the Cardinals compete for an NL Wild Card spot in a perceived gap year, has given a huge narrative edge to him over the field.

Benge started poorly for the first three weeks of the season and has made up significant ground since then, but if Wetherholt holds serve while St. Louis fights for a playoff spot until the end of the season, it could make him tough to beat in that regard.

Carson Benge will need J.J. Wetherholt's performance to fall off a cliff to help close the gap in the NL Rookie of the Year race. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The NL Rookie of the Year status is significant for the Mets, who would receive a bonus draft pick from the league's Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) program with Benge (or McLean, for that matter) winning the award. In a time when President of Baseball Operations David Stearns wants to reload the Mets' farm system, as evidenced by some of his deadline returns in deals for Luke Weaver and Freddy Peralta, an extra draft pick after the first round and the accompanying bonus pool money that comes with it could be a big help towards those efforts.

There are still six weeks left in the season for Benge to push for the award, but he will likely need to outperform Wetherholt significantly with the bat to counter Wetherholt's big defensive edge. It certainly isn't an impossible task, but the power of narrative and Wetherholt's own deserving season have put Benge on the back foot in this awards race.

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