3 Keys to Padres Upsetting the Brewers in the NLDS

The Brewers are beatable. Here's how.

San Diego Padres first baseman Gavin Sheets (30) celebrates with outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) after hitting a two run home run in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs during game two of the wild-card round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park on Sept. 30, 2026. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Milwaukee Brewers won 103 games in the regular season, more than any MLB team. The San Diego Padres are the underdogs in the series, and will play three of the five National League Division Series games in Milwaukee, assuming the best-of-five matchup goes the distance.

That said, the Brewers are beatable. Here's how:

1. Get to the back end of the Brewers' rotation

Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson are as good a 1-2 combination as maybe any team the Padres will face in October. After that, the Brewers' rotation thins out considerably.

Bullpen games could be in play in Games 3 and 4 in San Diego — either by design or, preferably for the Padres, if they take out the Brewers' starting pitcher early.

Of course, if the Padres fall into a 2-0 hole against the Brewers' aces, each of those games will be a must-win. If they are able to take a game in Milwaukee, the Padres will need to take both games in San Diego anyway, to avoid facing Misiorowski in Game 5.

2. Use the bullpen wisely

With a great bullpen comes great responsibility.

Craig Stammen tipped his hand about what mitigating his high-leverage relievers' workload might look like in Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Chicago Cubs.

He used Yuki Matsui for the eighth inning and Joe Musgrove for the ninth with an 8-0 lead. That's a big reason why the Padres' bullpen enters this series about as well-rested as one could expect.

If the series goes deeper, pay attention to how Stammen deploys his relief pitchers. The Brewers' lineup is tough 1-9; the gap between their best hitter and their worst isn't great.

Overusing Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Bradgley Rodriguez is a concern. So is using them in the wrong situation, against the wrong batters.

3. Hit more dingers

Teams that out-homered their opponents were 7-1 in the wild-card round. Last year, teams that out-homered opponents were 30-5 in the postseason overall.

The Padres hit 183 home runs in the regular season, 15th in MLB. The Brewers ranked 29th with 154. It's the Brewers' most obvious disadvantage compared to the Padres.

"Hit more dingers" is easier said than done, of course. But if the Padres seem to be taking more of an all-or-nothing approach at the plate compared to the Brewers, it's by design. It's how they got to this point — and it's their best chance to advance in the series.

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