Padres’ Biggest Advantage Against the Brewers (And The Biggest Concern)

The Milwaukee Brewers had the best regular season of any MLB team in 2026, winning a franchise-record 103 games. The Brewers finished 14 games ahead of the second-place Chicago Cubs in the National League Central, which should serve as an apt warning to the Padres: their next opponent will not be as easy as their last.

The Padres' two-game sweep of the Cubs in the National League wild-card series sets up an NLDS matchup in Milwaukee, with Game 1 scheduled for 5:30 p.m. PT Saturday.

Besides joining the major leagues as an expansion franchise in the same year (1969), the Padres and Brewers still have a lot in common. Each team gives their opponent a little something different to worry about, too. Here's how the mismatches are most likely to come into play:

The Padres’ Biggest Advantage Against the Brewers

After months of middling performances at the plate, the Padres' best hitters became their best hitters by the end of the regular season. The result? An offense that had baseball's best OPS over the season's final month.

The Padres' stars — Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill — are bigger home-run threats than any Brewer. Postseason games often hinge on a single home run.

If the Padres' complimentary players (like Gavin Sheets on Wednesday against the Cubs) are able to come through with a few moonshots too, the Brewers will be hard-pressed to match that firepower.

Milwaukee has made a habit of outperforming its OPS long enough that it can't be dismissed as a fluke. Despite an inferior OPS to the Padres in September (.784 to .815), the Brewers actually led the league in runs scored in September.

Yet for that style of offense to work in October, they must overcome not only their own recent history, but that of most "small ball" teams, too.

The Padres’ Biggest Concern Against the Brewers

On paper, the two teams have similarly top-heavy starting rotations. Probable NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski will start Game 1 for the Brewers. Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) is set to start Game 2 on Sunday in Milwaukee.

Michael King and Nick Pivetta, who held the Cubs to one run and four hits across 10.1 innings in the wild-card round, are manager Craig Stammen's best starters. King can start Game 2 on four days' rest — and probably should, given that extra rest seemed to work against him in the regular season — then come back for Game 5 if necessary.

That still leaves two games — Game 1 in Milwaukee and Game 4 in San Diego, if necessary — in which Stammen must piece together 18 innings with Walker Buehler, Randy Vasquez, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize as his best options to start. One of those games will be against Misiorowski.

Will Stammen turn to one of his lesser starters if the Padres face elimination in Game 4, or turn it into a bullpen game? How early will he go to the bullpen in Game 1 if the Padres are able to keep it close against Misiorowski? And if the Padres win the series but exhaust their bullpen, how much will it diminish their fortunes in the NL Championship Series?

The best-of-three wild-card format masked the relatively weak back end of the Padres' starting rotation. A best-of-five series makes that weakness harder to hide, and will force someone other than King or Pivetta to step up.

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