MLB Insider Believes Padres Are at Risk of Major Collapse This Year

The San Diego Padres are finding ways to win in 2026; but is their style of play sustainable over the course of a 162-game season?

Some MLB insiders are concerned that the Padres' success is only temporary and not a functional way to survive the season.

ESPN's Jesse Rogers was asked which National League team currently in the playoff field he believed was least likely to reach October.

Rogers chose the Padres.

"It's the Padres. Ask yourself, how does the team that ranks near last in OPS and outside the top 10 in ERA have such a good record? It's because they're hitting and pitching in the clutch at such a high level that there is bound to be regression — especially at the plate," he wrote.

"San Diego's numbers on the mound are also skewed by star closer Mason Miller. His stats count, of course, but what if it gets harder to get him the ball? Then his presence, and impact, will get mitigated."

Things haven't exactly panned out for the Padres since the spring.

Their rotation was immediately hit by injuries with both Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta being sidelined.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller found a solution with the signing of Lucas Giolito, which has thus far looked promising.

"Lucas Giolito could be the difference-maker if he keeps it up," Rogers wrote. "Before him, the starting staff was hanging on by a thread. It's always possible the Padres will keep it up, but a team that is 10 games over .500 with just a plus-6 run differential should give some pause."

It's also highly likely the Padres will continue to stay busy before the Aug. 3 deadline as the team will need to make some savvy trades to upgrade the roster where possible.

But there's some things that Preller's magic can't fix.

San Diego's top three hitters haven't lived up to the billing in 2026. Manny Machado is hitting below .200, Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn't hit a home run this season and Jackson Merrill has an OPS of .599.

Regardless, the Padres' gritty performances this season shouldn't be minimized.

In manager Craig Stammen's first season in the role, the Padres remain a top team in the National League West. Currently, the Friars are just 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

While the Padres lost the first series of the season to the Dodgers, San Diego showed how lethal it can be against an NL powerhouse.

Let's not forget the Padres also have a Cy Young candidate in Mason Miller, who is sporting a 0.76 ERA with 47 strikeouts across 23.2 innings pitched.

The success of the team coincides with Miller's as well as other Padres stars stepping up down the stretch. Preller will also have to do what he can to get the Padres rotation one more elite arm this summer.

There's a lot of factors that need to go right for the Padres, but if they can make the changes necessary, a deep playoff run certainly seems in the cards.

At the end of the day, Tatis and Machado have to get going at some point ... right?

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