One Move from the 2026 Trade Deadline the Padres Might Regret

Looking back, this deal may not have been worth it.

Nov 21, 2023; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller speaks to the media during a press conference announcing the hiring of manager Mike Shildt (not pictured) at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The San Diego Padres desperately needed starting pitching ahead of this year's trade deadline.

In fact, they needed help in many areas sitting at .500 (48-48) going into the All-Star break, and three games over .500 (58-55) leading into the trade deadline. The offense was inconsistent but starting to show signs of life going into the rest of August and beyond.

Something that desperately needed to be addressed, however, was the rotation.

Thus, the Padres made deals for San Francisco Giants southpaw Robbie Ray and Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize.

Ray had a 5.02 ERA in nine starts as a Padre, but was able to at least pitch in October.

As for Mize, he was coming off his first All-Star selection in 2025, and appeared to be on his way to an even more effective season with a 2.70 ERA ahead of the deadline. This would prove to be far from the truth upon his arrival in San Diego.

Across 10 starts for the Padres, Mize had a 7.36 ERA. In those games alone, he had a -1.3 bWAR, compared to a 2.6 bWAR he carried into the season from 16 starts on the Tigers.

An ankle injury kept Mize from pitching in the postseason, but there was no guarantee he would make the roster, especially with right-hander Joe Musgrove returning for the first time since October 2024 for the wild-card round.

The other side of why the Mize deal should particularly sting is not his lack of production in a scarce area, but who was given up for him: the Padres' No. 2 ranked prospect left-hander Kash Mayfield and fellow southpaw Jackson Wolf.

Though it was a small sample size in Triple-A, the 27-year-old Wolf had nearly opposite production compared to Mize, taking his 7.05 ERA (24 appearances) in Triple-A El Paso and turning it into something much more effective. After the trade, he totaled a 1.62 ERA across 33.2 innings of work for the Tigers' Triple-A affiliate.

As for Mayfield, the 21-year-old had a 3.54 ERA through 15 starts in High-A. He is the seventh-ranked prospect in the Tigers' system.

Wolf may start to make the Padres regret the trade at the MLB level before Mayfield, but the potential that both hurlers have can very well cause fans pain for years to come when comparing it to Mize's half-season output.

Mize will almost certainly be on a new team soon, too, as he was on an expiring deal. Ray is a free agent, as well.

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