Will 2026 Be the Year Jackson Merrill Becomes a Superstar?

Jackson Merrill arrived in the big leagues and looked like a future star almost immediately. The former 27th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft was called up in March of 2024 and wasted no time announcing himself as one of baseball’s most exciting young talents. As a 21-year-old rookie, he played in 156 games and hit .292 with 162 hits, 24 home runs, 77 runs scored, and 90 RBIs. He finished runner-up to Paul Skenes for National League Rookie of the Year, earned an All-Star selection, and took home a Silver Slugger Award. It was exactly the kind of debut season the Padres envisioned when they used a first-round pick on the highly touted prospect.

Jackson Merrill Padres Outfielder — Sep 24, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) hits a solo home run during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Expectations skyrocketed heading into 2025, but Merrill’s sophomore season told a different story. A series of injuries limited him to 115 games, and opposing pitchers adjusted to his aggressive approach at the plate. The result was a step back in nearly every statistical category, a reminder that the path to stardom is rarely linear. It was a sophomore slump, and what had looked effortless for Merrill as a rookie suddenly required new adjustments, and he spent much of the year searching for the rhythm that made him so dangerous his rookie year.

Now he enters his third season at a crossroads that many young stars have faced before. Year three has often been the launching point for elite players to transform potential into dominance. Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are recent examples of players that made their leap to true superstardom in their third full seasons, turning promise into MVP-caliber production. The opportunity in front of Merrill is similar. This is the year he shows whether he’s simply a good player with plenty of promise or a true franchise centerpiece and undeniable superstar.

Jackson Merrill Padres — Sep 2, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) walks back to the dugout after striking out during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The foundation is already there. Merrill pairs advanced bat-to-ball skills with above-average power and has shown the ability to drive pitches to all fields while proving he can hang with the league’s best pitchers. His athleticism has allowed him to transition smoothly to center field despite being developed as an infielder, and his instincts on the bases add another dimension to his game. His physical tools are impressive, but his poise stands out even more. He plays with the confidence of a veteran and has shown an ability to adjust quickly to elite pitching and big moments.

And yet, the biggest obstacle standing in Jackson Merrill’s path to stardom is himself.

For a third-year leap to happen, there are two areas Merrill must improve in that will be critical to his development. First, health. Merrill landed on the injured list three separate times in 2025, and consistency is impossible without availability. A full season of at-bats would allow him to regain the timing and confidence that fueled his rookie breakout.

Jackson Merrill Padres center fielder — Sep 11, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The next critical aspect that needs to improve for the young Padres center fielder is his plate discipline. As the season progressed, pitchers learned they could exploit Merrill’s aggressiveness, expanding the zone and enticing him to chase pitches he couldn’t drive. Too often, at-bats ended on weak contact or quick outs because he was swinging at whatever came his way rather than waiting for the right moment to strike. Developing a more selective approach, recognizing spin earlier, laying off borderline offerings, and working deeper counts will be essential to unlocking his full offensive ceiling. If he can pair his natural hitting skills with greater patience, he won’t just make more consistent contact, he’ll force pitchers into mistakes and create more opportunities to do damage.

If those pieces come together, the profile is clear. Merrill has the makeup of a high-average hitter capable of producing 30+ home runs while playing premium defense in center field. Add in his baserunning value and ability to stay cool under pressure, and he looks like the type of player organizations built around for a decade. A true superstar.

Jackson Merrill teammates padres — dSep 11, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The question entering 2026 is not whether Merrill is talented enough, his rookie season already answered that. The question is whether he can turn flashes into consistency and setbacks into growth. His improvement will also be a crucial piece in the Padres’ ability to contend this year, giving the lineup the kind of impact presence needed to keep pace in the National League and finally knock off the Dodgers in the NL west. The third year has a way of defining careers, and for Jackson Merrill, it represents the chance to move from promising young player to one of baseball’s elite.