Padres Predicted to Lose Nick Pivetta This Offseason in 'No-Brainer' Move

Despite the San Diego Padres having multiple injuries and inconsistent performances from starting pitchers, the team has found other ways to win games.

San Diego entered the new season with real questions around the starting rotation, but through 16 games, the Padres are tied for the second most wins in baseball.

Luckily for the Padres, pitchers such as Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Randy Vásquez have kept this team afloat to open the year. San Diego also has a very strong bullpen unit, led by star closer Mason Miller.

Unfortunately, Pivetta exited his Sunday start with elbow tightness, adding more concern to the Padres' rotation questions. However, manager Craig Stammen seemed optimistic about his right-hander, even saying Pivetta could potentially make his next start.

This is a big year for Pivetta, as he has the ability to opt out of his four-year, $55 million contract at the end of the season. Pivetta has been the ace of the staff over the last year, which would make his potential departure especially tough for San Diego to swallow.

This year, Pivetta has again been good for the Padres, even after he was roughed up on Opening Day. After allowing six runs across three innings in his first start, he's allowed just two runs over his last 13 innings with 20 strikeouts.

According to MLB insider Bob Nightengale of USA Today, rival general managers are already preparing for Pivetta to leave the Padres after the 2026 season. This, of course, is reliant upon his elbow not being a serious issue.

"Rival GMs already are counting on San Diego Padres ace Nick Pivetta to be on the free-agent market this winter, believing it’s a no-brainer that he will opt out of his contract," Nightengale wrote.

"As long as he’s breathing at the end of the season, he’ll opt out of the final two years and $32 million on his contract. Certainly, he will be one of the most prized starters on the free-agent market."

If Pivetta were to surprise everyone around baseball and not opt out, he would earn $14 million for the 2027 season. The right-hander then has a player option for $18 million for the 2028 season, which would be the last on his deal with San Diego.

Assuming Pivetta isn't seriously injured and he's able to put together another strong season, it appears many around the game expect him to enter free agency this offseason. Pivetta is worth more than the scheduled $14 million he is owed for next season if he stays on the deal.

The right-hander has been excellent for the Padres since he joined them in free agency ahead of the 2025 season. Last season, Pivetta was arguably the best pitcher on the Padres' starting staff, and the team has been encouraged by his progression with them.

Pivetta made 31 starts for the Padres a year ago, putting up an ERA of 2.87 overall. The right-hander also led the starters in wins (13) and innings pitched (182.1) for the year.

If Pivetta were to leave in free agency, the Padres would be in a tough spot due to his production and impact on the team. But for now, San Diego will try to maximize the season with Pivetta on the roster, hoping the organization can make a run toward a World Series with the right-hander.

First and foremost, though, they need to make sure he's healthy.