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It's Time to Be Concerned About Realmuto

Philadelphia Phillies' catcher J.T. Realmuto has slumped to begin 2022. Can the Phillies expect more from him, or is it time to panic?

Author:
Ben Silver
May 22, 2022 7:00 PM EDT

"#Sign J.T." was a rallying cry heard throughout the Delaware Valley during the MLB offseason in 2020-21. Two years prior, the Philadelphia Phillies had traded a package including their top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, catcher Jorge Alfaro, and lottery ticket pitcher Will Stewart to the Miami Marlins for the man who was deemed "the Best Catcher in Baseball," J.T. Realmuto.

Realmuto had only two years left on his deal at the time of the trade, and after 2020's shortened season, fans wondered how the Phillies could possibly let him walk in free agency after making him such an integral part of the team.

The Phillies did not let him go, making him the highest paid catcher in Major League history. On Jan. 26, 2021, Realmuto signed a five-year, $115.5 million deal.

That deal kept both fans and 2021 MVP Bryce Harper happy, who listed Realmuto as his best friend in the Phillies' 2022 yearbook.

The early returns on Realmuto were solid, in 2021 he nearly matched his career 111 OPS+ to that point, slashing .263/.343/.439 and nabbing an All-Star nomination. His glove work behind the plate continued to be phenomenal, leading all catchers in FRAA, a fielding stat with includes pitch framing, with 17.2.

But thus far in 2022, he played the part of an aging 31-year-old catcher rather well. His defense is still solid, but Realmuto has slashed .226/.295/.323. Even in 2022's lower offensive atmosphere his OPS+ is still just 79.

Of course, a month and a half and 146 plate appearances is an almost infinitesimal sample size when evaluating a player's decline, but nothing has fallen in Realmuto's favor this year.

His average exit velocity has dropped from 89.6 mph to 86.1 mph, which has coincided with a significant, and warranted, drop in BABIP from .325 to .295. Almost all of his other batted ball stats have remained consistent with years past, but Realmuto is simply not hitting the ball hard enough to make his profile viable.

His xBA and xSLG rest at .245 and .379. Those statistics consider the Phillies' catcher unlucky, but they'd still place him well below league average, and even further below the value Philadelphia expects from him given his contract.

Joe Girardi and the Phillies can—and should—demand more of him, and perhaps that's why his name has stayed so high in the lineup.

But if Realmuto continues his current trends, his decline will be swift and ugly. The Phillies have him under payroll for three more seasons following 2022, with catching options like Logan O'Hoppe, Rafael Marchan, and Donny Sands awaiting major league playing time.

Plenty of mistakes were made in the Phillies front office during 2020, but "#Signing J.T." may turn out to be the biggest mistake of them all.