Pirates 2025 Deep Dive: Paul Skenes
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are staring down a consequential 2025 campaign.
With both general manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton firmly on the hot seat, as well as a ravenous fan base that's yearning for the return of Buctober, patience is wearing thin for the Pirates.
An offseason mired by inactivity has done little to ignite hope or build expectations of contention, but perhaps Pittsburgh could shock the world and announce its arrival on the national stage.
With that, let's kick off our deep dives for the upcoming year with the most important piece of the puzzle in Paul Skenes.
Background
After graduating from El Toro High School in Lake Forest, Calif., Skenes headed to Air Force and began his collegiate career in the fall of 2020.
He starred as a two-way player for the program in 2021 and 2022, producing a combined slash line of .367/.453/.669 while mashing 24 home runs in 341 at-bats. On the mound, Skenes recorded 11 saves with a 2.70 ERA as the team's closer in the first of those two years before entering the starting rotation and posting a 2.73 ERA over 15 outings in '22.
After earning a laundry list of honors throughout his time at Air Force, Skenes entered the transfer portal and landed at LSU ahead of the 2023 campaign. There, he blossomed into the country's most dominant player while focusing solely on pitching.
Across 19 starts for the Tigers, Skenes lit up the SEC with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 122 2/3 innings. He subsequently won the National Pitcher of the Year and Dick Howser Awards, the latter of which is bestowed upon the country's top overall performer, while also being named the College World Series Most Outstanding Player after LSU triumphed over Florida for the national championship.
The Pirates later selected Skenes with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. He received a signing bonus of $9.2 million, the largest in league history, before Chase Burns and Charlie Condon both passed him at $9.25 million the following year.
In an effort to limit his workload following a strenuous collegiate campaign, Skenes made just five starts totaling 6 2/3 frames between the Florida Complex League, Single-A Bradenton and Double-A Altoona in his first go-around as a professional.
2024 Review
Pittsburgh, much to the chagrin of fans, did not include Skenes on its Opening Day roster in 2024.
He took that time to further hone his craft with Triple-A Indianapolis, where he imposed his will on hitters and logged a 1.32 ERA over seven starts with an absurd 45 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings.
The Pirates couldn't keep him down on the farm for long, eventually calling the right-hander up for his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs on May 11. Skenes threw four innings in that contest, allowing three earned runs and notching seven strikeouts on 84 pitches.
He drew oohs and aahs while ripping through the league for the remainder of the first half, which culminated in a seven-inning, no-hit performance with 11 punch outs against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 11.
Skenes became just the fifth rookie pitcher in MLB history to start the All-Star Game, throwing a scoreless first inning for the National League while retiring the likes of Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge.
Despite a second-half surge by San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill as well as concerns about his workload, sparking discussions of a potential shutdown, Skenes still went on to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. He was the second player in franchise history to earn those honors after Jason Bay did so in 2004.
Skenes was handed a full year of service time after being named the ROTY, and had Pittsburgh included him on its initial 26-man roster out of spring training, it would have netted an extra draft pick through the Prospect Promotion Incentive program due to his third-place finish in NL Cy Young voting.
Among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings in 2024, Skenes ranked first in ERA (1.96) and second in both strikeouts per nine (11.50) and FIP (2.44) to go with 4.3 fWAR.
2025 Outlook
It's not hyperbole to declare that Skenes is one of the most talented arms to toe the rubber this century. It's rare to find a pitcher with as few question marks as he carries, especially at 22-years-old.
The flame-thrower, whose intimidating mound presence is an unmistakable factor in his success, has everything going for him. From a loaded arsenal that includes his infamous "splinker" to impeccable command, nasty stuff and an innate ability to keep the ball on the ground, Skenes could very well separate himself from the rest of the pack this season.
Steamer projects him to finish with the lowest ERA amongst starting pitchers at 2.80 while also posting the highest fWAR at 5.8, which is 0.7 above the next player on the list in Jacob deGrom.
Doug Drabek was the last Pirate to win the Cy Young Award in 1990, but Skenes stands a good chance of snapping that drought.
He'll also do his part in ending another cold spell for the franchise, as Pittsburgh has not reached the playoffs since 2015.
There's a lot of weight on Skenes' shoulders as the Pirates' ace and unquestioned face of the franchise, but no one is better prepared to meet the moment than he is.
Jack is a New Jersey native who graduated from the University of Pittsburgh as a Media & Professional Communications major in 2024 who is now covering the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Yankees for On SI.