Rays Predicted to Finish Poorly in Tight AL East Division Race

Where will the Tampa Bay Rays finish in the American League East?

Sep 26, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The hat and glove of Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (13) in the dugout during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With Opening Day here, the Tampa Bay Rays will be excited for the start of what they hope can be a special season. The team will be entering a new era led by a new ownership group, and snapping a two-year playoff drought will be the first goal. 

This winter, there was some initial hope that their new owners might finally start to spend and increase payroll for the roster. However, with the need for a new stadium, that appears to be the primary goal for the team, rather than spending now. 

For the Rays, the lack of a payroll increase will mean that the team will continue to operate as they have, and nothing major has changed. The Rays were very active, as always, during the offseason, trying to get the most out of their roster. However, compared to the rest of their division, they didn’t make the same type of splash moves to improve. 

Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) recently predicted that the American League East is going to be one of the tightest races in baseball, with the first four teams being separated by just five games. Unfortunately, he had the Rays coming in last. 

Tampa Bay Will Need Some Help

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A tight AL East race certainly seems like it has a high likelihood of happening. In 2025, this was a division that sent three teams to the postseason, but both the Rays and Baltimore Orioles finished under the .500 mark. The Orioles had an extremely aggressive winter in trying to make improvements, and they undoubtedly do not want to miss the playoffs again. 

Furthermore, while the Orioles should be better, the three teams that made the postseason are all very capable of doing so again. The New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox all added new pieces in hopes of winning the division crown. 

For the Rays, while they might have been active, it’s hard to say that they improved for 2026. Arguably, the biggest boost that the team might get is the return of starting pitcher Shane McClanahan from the injured list. The two-time All-Star has missed the last two seasons but is healthy heading into the year. 

Tampa Bay is no stranger to being able to exceed expectations, and they will need that and a little help to contend in the AL East in 2026, especially to avoid a last-place finish.