Ravs vs Red Sox Series Preview in AL East Divisional Clash
In this story:
The vibes for the Tampa Bay Rays are off the charts. After another MLB-leading fifth sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Rays refuse to cool down.
Namely, it’s been their pitching that teams have no answer for. Even with injuries looming, this new-look Tampa Bay staff is a run-prevention machine, as they’ve now played 13 straight games without allowing three or more runs.
A team people wrote off before the start of the season has begun their year writing themselves into record books, while breaking out as a top contender in the league. And while the metrics do suggest there’s some overperformance and luck in one-run ballgames, the Rays are playing a gritty brand of baseball that grinds teams down.
A three-headed monster in the rotation spearheaded by Nick Martinez has been unrelenting. All-Stars Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan could be aces in their own right on any other pitching staff, but it’s Martinez who has spun the ball spectacularly.
Rays pitching staff dominating opponents
Batters are hitting .119 on his changeup this season, and his 6% walk rate tracks as one of the best among qualified starters. It’s vaulted him into rarified air as a top ten starter among ERA ranks. Costing just $13 million on a one-year commitment, Martinez has been one of the savviest offseason additions in a starting pitching market that usually demands much more.
Speaking of dominant changeup pitchers, that changeup has been a hallmark of Tampa Bay's early-season success. Their overall team 21.1% changeup usage is easily first in baseball and has also generated the most runs above average on the pitch. Of course, Martinez has been using it to break out to the best start of his career, yet it’s also doing wonders for the likes of Steven Matz and Bryan Baker.
This sudden flip and newfound success in pitching philosophy has put the Rays back in the driver's seat as an industry leader in baseball information. The past two years saw them slide in terms of the run prevention they’ve historically been so famous for. But since shifting from inconsistent flamethrowers like Taj Bradley and Shane Baz to reliable changeup artists, there’s been a night-and-day difference in results.
Sitting at 24-12, the Rays are perhaps the breakout team of the season. They are overcoming stacked odds in a loaded division to collect wins early and frequently. The pundits can say what they like about them not being a serious contender, but the more wins they keep racking up, the closer they inch to October baseball becoming a reality.
Next, they’ll have to leave the homely confines of the Trop and travel up north to face the Boston Red Sox. A close second in terms of rivals to the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay have always competed neck and neck in the regular season and playoffs.
Fenway Park, in particular, has always been a haunt in the collective Rays’ memory. A four-game sweep in July at Fenway last season served as one of the final nails in the coffin for Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes, and of course, that 2021 ALDS loss is hard to forget.
These 2026 Red Sox are looking to dig themselves out of an early-season hole, and it’ll be up to the Rays to keep them in the AL East cellar.
Game 1: Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennet
Stepping in to fill the void left by a litany of Tampa Bay starting pitcher injuries piling up, Griffin Jax is officially making the transition to starting. The longtime relief ace is working with pitching coach Kyle Snyder to tinker with his arsenal and learn to pitch differently in multi-inning appearances.
So far, he’s faring much better starting than relieving in 2026. In the two games he has started, he has only pitched five innings but has yet to give up a run. A cutter being reintroduced, as well as an uptick in changeup usage through his first two starts, is also encouraging.
The Rays are moving him away from the one-inning pitch mix with high heat and spin to a more nuanced cut and sinking mix that’ll fare better over more innings. It will be interesting to see if this experiment helps just in the short term while traditional starters are mending or if this switch could result in a permanent change for Jax.
Toeing the rubber for Boston is Jake Bennett, a component of an under-the-radar trade that took place over the offseason. He was acquired from the Nationals for relief arm Luis Perales in what seemed like a simple roster crunching swap. Only, Bennett has been a fairly good prospect over the course of his minor league career and is no name to gloss over.
A second-round pick in 2022 by the Nationals, Bennett was known as a co-ace in a strong Oklahoma rotation that also featured Cade Horton. He was tagged as a safe prospect with an amazing feel for a mid-80s changeup that he can command impeccably.
Commanding his changeup will be central to his game as his fastball and slider offerings clock in as subpar. Expect Bennett to pitch heavily in the zone and for the Rays' bats to be ultra aggressive against the low stuff, high command young lefty.
Ryan Vilade is a bat to keep a close eye on in this first game. Facing an in-zone lefty that will be pitching near the bottom of the zone with his changeup is a recipe for success for Vilade. The Rays' designated lefty masher has been taking off lately to the tune of a .345 batting average versus lefties.
This offseason pickup by Neander went largely unnoticed. Vilade was a 27-year-old, former top prospect who had seemingly busted and the league had forgotten about. The Rays did their digging on him, scratched under the surface, and found some of the minor league’s best hard-hit metrics to his name.
Now, he’s become a prototypical Tampa Bay platoon bat in the same vein as Jordan Luplow, and is seizing an opportunity to bat in the heart of a winning lineup.
Game 2: Jesse Scholtens v Connely Early
Though not likely to light up the world, Jesse Scholtens has been doing an admirable job as understudy to this Rays rotation. His 3.18 ERA over 22.2 IP has been largely aided by increased usage of his slider, which looks like a true slurve on a good day.
That pitch is being thrown at the highest rate of his career, with the Rays obviously seeing it as his best out pitch. It’s doing the job. Keeping hitters in the ballpark and off the bases from free passes should help him continue to hold down the fort until reinforcements are healed up.
The Red Sox farm system saw two of its best pitching products in recent seasons break out last year in Peyton Tolle and Connely Early. Tolle got the bulk of the attention due to his huge frame and tenacious fastball, but it was Early that became the focal point late in the season for Boston last year.
After just four games started in the regular season, Early received the crucial Game 3 Wild Card start against New York. The young lefty couldn’t secure the win, but since then is a name to remember as a longtime fixture in this Red Sox rotation.
Early is very much a modern pitching development wonder whose deep pitch mix and low arm angle create multitudes of different looks that no hitter can ever pin him down on. He’s extremely unpredictable as the six pitches he throws get used differently according to the batter’s handedness. Lefties will see their fair share of power sinkers and fastballs that have natural run in on the hands, while righties get a steadier stream of offspeed.
Game 3: Bullpen Game v Ranger Suarez
Games 2 and 3 in this series are going to be something of a piece together for the Rays. Manager Kevin Cash has already said, “We’re scrambling a little bit, trying to put our heads together on what we do with Matz’s spot.”
Since Steven Matz went on the injured list, the rotation is going to be thrown for a loop. Depth piece Mason Englert is likely to get the call for this series and pitch in some bulk role in either game 2 or 3. Englert is a serviceable option who has fallen in line with several other Tampa Bay pitchers, making their changeup an out pitch. It’s worked to effect in inducing heavy chase.
Though it is not announced, Ranger Suarez will likely get a start in this series. He was pulled from last Sunday’s game against the Houston Astros with a hamstring problem that looks to be minor. Suarez has turned up the dial on his season in recent starts with some fantastic performances.
He’s showing why he was worth the $140 million Boston paid him as he has gone out and diced up strong Blue Jays and Tigers lineups over eight innings each. It’s due to his unique arsenal that doesn’t boast the fastest velocities but does infuriate hitters with its sink that lives near the bottom and edges of the zone.
The sinker, especially, is his money pitch, which has come to define his career. He always locates it on the bottom, left-handed side of the zone, giving lefties a tough pitch on their hands and righties an out-and-away offering that’s tough to get a consistent barrel on.
When Bryan Baker debuted for the Rays on July 7th last season, he did so at Fenway Park just hours after getting traded from Baltimore. Fresh from getting off the plane, Baker proceeded to blow the lead in the seventh inning and give the Red Sox the lead and the win. This is not the same Baker as last year's.
He has been a late-innings revelation for Tampa Bay this season. Not only is his fastball and changeup combination proving to be elite enough for closing games, but he is also carrying himself with a fire and intensity built for the 9th inning. A longtime setup and seventh-inning guy for the Orioles, Baker is getting the recognition he deserves from the Rays by being entrusted as their high-leverage man.
His changeup carries ridiculous life and movement, clocking in as a +4 run value pitch. He’s throwing the ball the best he ever has in his career, and with nine saves in only 14.2 innings, he’s well on his way to a breakout closer season.
Game 4: (Probably) Nick Martinez v Brayan Bello
Most likely to get the ball in the final Sunday rubber match is Nick Martinez, looking to extend his blistering start to the year. The formula for his success will rely on keeping the Boston bats in the yard and off balance on the offspeed.
This is a Red Sox lineup with lots of contact that can slug on any given day, and he’ll need to be careful. Martinez also owns a 7.88 ERA in Boston, albeit in a short sample. As long as his sinker and cutter play off of his floor dropping changeup, there should be no problems for the veteran.
There will be some waiting to see if Bello has an opener in front of him for Sunday’s game, but he will no doubt be getting some bulk innings. The story of Bello’s career has been extremely up and down. He came up as a fresh and exciting pitching prospect with a lively pitch mix that played mainly off of his sinker.
His maturity was off the charts when he first came up as he transitioned to the big leagues with no problem and was handsomely rewarded with a 6-year contract. Now, his development has been taking incremental steps back.
Since a brilliant 2023 season that saw him provide stability to a struggling Boston rotation, he’s had trouble recapturing a resemblance to his control and strikeout stuff. The start to his 2026 was another chapter in how low he could go as he was seen cussing out interim manager Chad Tracy after yet another bad start, before pitching behind an opener in his next game.
Bello’s raw stuff is as good as some top starters, but it's the lack of a true out pitch and at least average command that keeps him from ever breaking through that 3-man in a rotation ceiling.
When it was reported that Kevin Kiermaier would be coaching Rays outfielders in Spring Training, there was no outfielder thought to benefit more than Chandler Simpson. The fastest man in baseball had trouble translating his on-field speed into tracking down flyballs, and it was the final part of his game that really needed work.
That training has seemed to pay off as the start to his defensive year has been tremendous. He isn’t just improving to a better defensive left fielder, but he has, in fact, become the best defensive left fielder in baseball. Fielding run value clocks him as having by far the best range of any left fielder.
The speed that many think is just a weapon on the base paths has now become a massive defensive strength. The way Kiermaier is handling these Rays outfielders warrants a permanent coaching position for the Rays' Platinum Glover.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.