Rays Best Kept Secret Is Thriving in Lineup This Season
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Taylor Walls has a reputation as one of the most polarizing players in Tampa Bay Rays lore.
Bemoaned by fans who see the glove-first shortstop as an offensive liability, he tests the limits of how far a player can skate by on defense alone. Since his call-up in 2021, he’s proved his worth on great Rays teams as a stellar backup infielder wherever the help is needed. There’s a certain dumbfoundedness among fans unaware of Tampa Bay's style of play, which leaves them scratching their heads when it comes to Walls.
His career 71 wRC+ ranks in the bottom ten of all qualified hitters since 2021 and shows no sign of improving. It’s certainly no mark of an above replacement level player to most analysts, and despite that, he’s a starting shortstop for one of the best teams in baseball.
There is something extra special going on with Walls this year, and it’s what has catapulted him to Baseball-Reference listing him as the Rays' second most valuable position player entering play on May 20.
The fWAR vs. bWAR Discrepancy
To understand the full extent of the Taylor Walls experience, one must delve into wins above replacement, better known as WAR. The most basic explanation of the more conceptual statistic is that there’s a theoretical replacement-level player used as a comparison to calculate how much better a certain player is than that player.
Calculations on how this is accounted for vary by the stat counter, leading to competing versions of WAR. This all-encompassing statistic that tries to measure a player's collection of numerous different values they add (or don’t) leads to confusion around how talent should be evaluated.
A classic example would be Dante Bichette’s gaudy offensive numbers not making up for poor outfield glovework that made some of his best seasons average according to most WAR calculations.
Another prime suspect of this WAR confusion deals with Walls and understanding his profile through the competing lenses of fWAR and bWAR. The FanGraphs version of WAR (fWAR) takes defense into account using only Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Baseball Reference (bWAR) factors in UZR and Defensive Runs Saved, adding a layer to other ways a defender can shine with their glove.
Walls performs amazingly according to bWAR, but is kicked down a peg by fWAR. That difference in defensive calculation has led to the defensive wizard not being fully understood in terms of actual talent.
The Secret Behind the Glove
Where Walls is better than almost every other defender in baseball is in anticipation. There’s no scouting tool given out for anticipation. Smooth hands, strong arms, and range are seen as the key indicators that predict future defensive performance, but almost no credence is given to instincts.
Rays beat writer, Adam Berry, did great work to uncover what many already had a feeling was true about Walls, and it was in his positioning. At the time the ball is hit, Walls is in a better position than most shortstops, as seen in his sky-high estimated success rates.
It’s the missing piece of the puzzle in the WAR discrepancy that gets to the bottom of how Walls is met with scrutiny by fWAR. If fWAR’s calculation sees him as having high estimated success rates all the time, it thus doesn’t see Walls as tackling challenging plays. In essence, he’s done all the hard work before the play that defensive metrics can’t gauge.
Walls Leveled Up
All that explanation leads to how Walls’ 1.3 bWAR ranks the second-highest among positional players on the current best team in baseball. It’s an incredible stat to see because it simply seems so improbable.
On a team of transcendent power with Junior Caminero, consistent contact in Yandy Diaz, and lights-out pitching from Shane McClanahan, Walls is quietly excelling.
His +7 defensive runs saved is good for third best among shortstops, and that’s with noticeably fewer innings than the leaders. Give him close to a full season, and Walls can easily be leading that pack.
The one-sided play with his glove is not to take away from Walls’ performance at the plate in 2026. His 75 OPS+ seems lackluster until paired with the magnitude of his biggest hits in recent games.
Sunday’s series clincher against the Miami Marlins saw him split the gap with the bases loaded to give Tampa Bay three huge runs that would be the decider. Additionally, his extra innings RBI in last week’s nailbiter in Toronto again proved to be the difference in a one-run game.
FanGraphs’ Clutch metric, which analyzes how a player performs in high leverage situations, ranks him second among Rays’ hitters.
With a slow heartbeat in big game situations and the glove work to make the shortstop position a baseball graveyard, it’s easy to see why Tampa Bay can’t stop raving about their often misnomered “backup” shortstop.
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Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.