Rays Look To Continue Red-Hot Performance Against Marlins
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It was a tough way to finish the series in Toronto, but besides the game-losing walkoff grand slam on their way out, the Tampa Bay Rays nonetheless won the series.
They are now past the quarter mark in the season, far ahead of everyone’s expectations. At 28-14, they are returning to their roots as the team others dread to play.
Lights-out pitching, pesky contact hitting, and superstar presences near the top of the lineup create a tall task for teams when lining up how to figure out this Tampa Bay squad. The next team that will try to solve the Rays is their cross-state rivals, the Miami Marlins.
The Citrus Series is as much a rivalry as two teams in separate leagues with little history can be. The only defining feature is that both teams play in Florida, and it doesn’t go much further than that. Baseball-wise, this series has been lopsided in favor of Tampa Bay. In the 2020s, the Rays have dominated the Marlins with a 23-7 record.
Rays entering series with Marlins riding plenty of momentum
Miami was projected to be a threatening team going into this season. For what has been a tumultuous past several years marked by constant front office change, the new regime led by former Rays President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix laid the groundwork for a competitive team.
After losing badly in his first season in charge, Bendix has consistently collected major league-ready prospects in the hope of an expedited rebuild that looks to be ending sooner than later. Their 79-win season last year turned heads for the breakouts of several savvy additions Bendix quietly made.
Kyle Stowers was their lone All-Star representative, who took tremendous strides forward with a 25-home run and 150 OPS+ campaign. On top of that, infielders Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards hold down one of the better middle infields in the game.
With breakouts still abounding and All-Stars and former Cy Young winners scattered about, this Marlins squad poses a real threat as wild card hopefuls.
Those wild-card aspirations have gotten off to a slow start. The high ceiling outfield unit of Stowers, Marsee, and offseason addition Owen Cassie haven’t lived up to the dreamed expectations.
Jesse Scholtens quieted Marlins bats in Game 1
It’s been a lot of Lopez and Edwards doing the heavy lifting while the rest of the team catches up. The pitching has been equally as hit or miss, as bottom-of-the-rotation depth has dragged down the hot starts of Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara.
Liam Hicks is an especially interesting name to watch on the roster. Miami’s prospect catching unit of Agustin Ramirez and Joe Mack has received heavy hype for both prospects’ well-rounded profiles, but it was last year’s Rule 5 pick, Hicks, who has seized the mantle.
His Baseball Savant page is lit up like a Christmas tree in terms of contact rates and low whiff rates that have made him the catching equivalent of Chandler Simpson. His story, as an unwanted Rule 5 player from the Tigers’ system, to overnight success, highlights the incredible job the new-look Miami player evaluation has done under Bendix.
Game 1 of this series at Tropicana Field has the Rays slightly outmatched on the starting pitching side. Jesse Scholtens will continue to get more innings while the ailing arm of Joe Boyle looks closer to a return. The serviceable veteran is usually good for a couple of turns through the lineup and had another stellar performance as the bulk inning pitcher behind Ian Seymour.
Janson Junk threw in the series opener for Miami and was tagged for seven earned runs through 5.2 innings of work. He’s an arm that not many know of, that they should look into, despite the struggles.
Junk was yet another Bendix find on the open market who has gone from a minor league signee during Spring Training to a steady rotation presence. With a deep arsenal and well-placed fastballs, Junk makes hitters work for their hits. When his command is pinpointed as it usually is, he’s a tough assignment.
Rays and Marlins will have battle of aces
Game 2 is more of a battle of aces between Alcantara and Nick Martinez. That’s right, Rays ace Martinez just keeps dominating as he and his changeup don’t look to slow down. He’s been an absolute spectacle to watch this season, as at 35 years old, he seems to be figuring out pitching more than ever.
While not missing bats, he and the Rays have worked out how to keep hitters from not getting their best swings off against stuff at the bottom of the zone. Alcantara is moving differently in terms of career arc.
His peak was reached during his Cy Young-winning 2022 season, which looks to be well in the rearview. It’s not to say he is a diminished pitcher, just one who had to adjust.
Last season was a serious wake-up call, as it was easily the worst season of his career after an entire year off due to injury. He’s now navigating how to pitch with overall worse stuff, and it’s been a real challenge.
Finally, Game 3 will see Drew Rasmussen look to extend his steady top-of-the-rotation presence against former top prospect Eury Perez. There’s not much to say about Rasmussen as he continues to be exactly the pitcher the Rays envisioned when they traded for him.
From pitching in bullpen stints in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay to earning ALDS starting nods at 25 years old, Rasmussen is in the most comfortable spot of his career as the Rays' go-to guy.
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Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.