Why Rays Are the Biggest Threats to Yankees in AL Playoffs

For a vast majority of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays have been in first place in the American League East. The New York Yankees have narrowly trailed behind for most of that time, but despite that, the Rays have kept their foot on the gas and consistently maintained a lead over their division rival.

While the Yankees are considered the AL’s team to beat according to ESPN, Tampa Bay, along with the Boston Red Sox, is considered the biggest threat to New York in the postseason.

Several factors can go into this take, of course, taking into consideration the success the Rays have had this season, how the two teams compare talent-wise, as well as other factors such as each team’s path to a potential World Series title.

The thought process behind this projection by an AL scout is that the Yankees and Red Sox will compete in the AL Wild Card Series and wear themselves out in the series, battling it out against each other.

Rays present biggest threat for several reasons

Sep 19, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Richie Palacios (1) celebrates with third baseman Junior Caminero (13) and teammates after he hit the game winning walk off RBI single during the ninth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"I'm taking the Rays thinking maybe the Yankees and Red Sox exhaust themselves a little playing each other in the first round,” the AL scout said.

Both New York and Boston are projected to face each other in the AL Wild Card Series, which was the exact matchup that took the stage last season at Yankee Stadium. It should be an intense battle that could go three games, as it did last year, with three close games played in the Bronx, with high intensity.

That could be an advantage for Tampa Bay, which will have a bye and will play the winner of the series.

Additionally, the AL scout mentioned the top of the Rays’ lineup and their closer as other factors that make them believe that Tampa Bay is the biggest threat to the Yankees.

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— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) September 21, 2026

“I mean, the Rays have been the best team in the AL all season and I love the top of their order,” the AL scout said. “And I'll take Bryan Baker up against anyone, including Aroldis Chapman. His fastball/changeup combo is great."

The Rays have had one of the best records in the MLB the entire season and held the best record in the AL for most of the year, with New York not far behind.

Their top of the lineup features the AL’s home run leader Junior Caminero, as well as Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz. Caminero is putting together an MVP-caliber campaignb as he leads the AL with 41 home runs, is fourth in the AL in slugging percentage with .526, fourth in OPS with an .888 mark, and is closing in on 100 RBIs this year (currently sits at 97).

Aranda is slashing .277/.359/.440 with 22 homers, 26 doubles, 92 RBIs and a .799 OPS in 150 games this year. Díaz, the Rays’ primary leadoff hitter, is slashing .290/.356/.446 with 22 home runs, 25 doubles, 88 runs scored and an .802 OPS.

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— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) September 19, 2026

Chandler Simpson is also a key factor in the lineup. He ranks in the top three in the league in batting average this season (.309) as of Sept. 22 and is tied for the league lead in stolen bases with 46.

Ryan Baker was also mentioned by the AL scout, with his fastball/change-up mix making him one of the best closers in the league. The closer has 40 saves this year with a 1.49 ERA.

The Yankees may be the team to beat in the AL, but Tampa Bay is the biggest threat to the 27-time World Series champions, as the Rays will appear in the postseason for the first time since 2023.

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