Red Sox-Astros 'Not Really' Fit for Highly Discussed Trade

Is there really a pathway to a deal?

Jul 30, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) hits a two run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the sixth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The last two weeks have been dominated by rumors and whispers about the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros making a trade that might just never occur.

Boston's need for a power-hitting infielder is obvious, and the Astros currently have two-time All-Star Isaac Paredes blocked at third base by Carlos Correa. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are overloaded with outfielders, and it has seemed all along like they'd be willing to trade away Jarren Duran.

With all that said, trading Duran for Paredes, because the former has an extra year of control and outpaces the latter on a WAR-per-game basis, just doesn't make a ton of sense for Boston.

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Imperfect value proposition of a Sox-Astros trade

Jul 8, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes (15) stands on the field after a play during the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Red Sox beat reporter Ari Alexander of WHDH-TV, who worked the Astros beat until moving to Boston at the end of last year, recently spelled out multiple reasons why the Red Sox and Astros would have a tough time making a trade come to fruition in a post to X.

"Do the Astros & Red Sox line up on an Isaac Paredes trade? Honestly, not really," wrote Alexander. "Jarren Duran has too much value for the deal to be 1 for 1…so what would the Astros need to add to make that a fair deal?

"The Astros don’t necessarily need Brayan Bello — but could probably use him given that Imai is on a 1+1+1 (contract), so Bello solves more of a 2027 problem than a 2026 one - again, the Astros have starter depth. Is there a path to a deal? Yes. Is it simple? No."

Another wrinkle that Alexander didn't mention in this particular tweet, but did in another, is that the Astros seem to prefer Wilyer Abreu to Duran, while also implying that the Red Sox would rather give up Duran as well.

The move that most Red Sox fans would likely be alright with is a Bello-Paredes swap, given the incredible rotation depth the Sox have suddenly accrued and the fact that Bello's affordable contract becomes more expensive over time.

If that's the line in the sand the team wants to draw, however, the Astros are at liberty to turn them away until they come back and offer up an outfielder instead.

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