Red Sox Urged To Risk Passing On Alex Bregman In Favor Of $427 Million Superstar

The grass might be greener on the other side... but

Sep 22, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) walks on the field before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Closing time may not be here yet (or Opening Day, in this case), but it's definitely approaching. And the Boston Red Sox and Alex Bregman are just staring at each other from across the room.

Bregman, who was a two-time All-Star third baseman in his nine years with the Houston Astros, hasn't gotten the offers yet in free agency that he initially hoped for. Boston seems like his last, best bet to clear the $150 million mark, except the Red Sox appear to be playing the waiting game, hoping the price tag comes down.

What if, in some way, the Red Sox are actually hoping to lose the Bregman sweepstakes? There's a free agent hitting the market next winter who could flip all their plans upside-down.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays is one of the best right-handed hitters in all of baseball, and the Red Sox know right-handed power is their biggest weakness as an offense. He's also a lot younger than Bregman, entering his age-26 season while Bregman will play most of the year at 31.

Recently, Jordan Llanes of ClutchPoints urged the Red Sox to wait out Bregman in the hopes that Guerrero would instead sign in Boston for the 2026 season.

"This isn't saying that Bregman would not be a good fit. Guerrero Jr. would just be better," Llanes wrote. "Vladdy would be coming to a park that he already knows well."

"He's already an established star that has taken plenty of criticism. Those experiences should prepare him for what he would face as a home resident of Fenway Park."

And while it's no guarantee the Red Sox can get Bregman even with their best sales pitch right now, Guerrero's free agency will be an entirely different spectacle. Sure, there's the report from Bob Nightengale that the Red Sox are Guerrero's most likely non-Blue Jays suitor, but who knows how much can change in a year?

Spotrac projects Guerrero for a 12-year, $427 million contract next winter, and one can safely assume Guerrero will shoot first for the $500 million mark. The Red Sox have never signed a contract within $100 million of the low-end projection, so they'd be entering uncharted territory.

And lest we forget, Triston Casas is already at first base for the Red Sox. Even if Guerrero is an upgrade over Casas, it's certainly no guarantee that a lineup with Guerrero alone is better than one with both Casas and Bregman.

More MLB: Red Sox Predicted To Lose Free-Agent Bidding War For $66 Million All-Star To Angels