What Red Sox's 2026 Budget Looks Like After Sonny Gray Blockbuster

Worrying about whether the Boston Red Sox will spend like the big-market team they are has been an exhausting part of the fan experience in recent years.

In 2025, the Red Sox surpassed the first luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2022, and the budget was shrinking considerably back then. The payroll is already somewhat tight for the new year, however, due to rising tax payroll hits for Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, and others.

So now that the Red Sox are committed to $21 million for Sonny Gray, the newest addition to the roster, what does their budget look like for the remainder of the offseason?

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Red Sox projected to spend between $20-60 million more

On Monday, insider Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reported that the Red Sox are almost guaranteed to cross over the first tax threshold once again, and almost equally certain not to go over the third penalty threshold of $284 million, which would cause their first draft pick this summer to drop by 10 spots.

The current projected payroll is roughly $223 million in the wake of the Gray deal, per Fangraphs.

"The Red Sox surpassed the luxury tax threshold last season and appear ready to do so for a second straight year, especially considering the current collective bargaining agreement and payroll rules expire after the 2026 season," McCaffrey wrote.

"Though the Red Sox seem likely to spend beyond the first threshold of $244 million and might consider spending beyond $264 million, it’s highly unlikely they’d hit the $284 million mark, given how much they value the draft and internal development under Breslow."

That $264 million number is one to watch for a number of reasons. It's the second penalty threshold, which increases the tax on any additional dollar spent from 30% to 42%, and it's about the amount it would cost to sign a slugger like Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso and then add another impact big-leaguer via trade.

There's no guarantee the Red Sox will retain all $223 million of that current projected payroll as well. They should look to shed salary elsewhere, and in particular, attaching a prospect to Masataka Yoshida to get rid of as much of his $19 million salary as possible should be strongly considered.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox still have room to make more splashes, though perhaps not enough splashes to please every fan and analyst. And it's still so early that we can't say with certainty how much money there is, only make a solid educated guess.

More MLB: How Red Sox's Sonny Gray Trade Affects Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu: Insider