How Much Can the Red Sox Actually Spend This Offseason?

Even if the answer should be "unlimited budget"

Dec 9, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow speaks with the media at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

As the time comes to turn the page to the 2027 season for the Boston Red Sox, it's worth looking into the budget situation.

If there is indeed a 2027 season to play, the Red Sox will be under pressure to improve a roster that simply couldn't compete in the postseason. But based on past years' budgets and the amount that roster projects to cost already, it's not immediately clear whether expensive additions are coming.

According to Spotrac, the Red Sox's estimated tax payroll for next season already projects to be $291 million, not accounting for the $30 million mutual option they hold with starting pitcher Sonny Gray. That sounds like a lot, but we'll dive into how much of that we should expect them to spend for the rest of this piece.

Red Sox have room — but how much?

Sep 30, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Adley Rutschman (31) greets pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) after the seventh inning against the New York Yankees during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Red Sox have many players projected for higher salaries next season via arbitration. Most notably, Jarren Duran is likely to cost upwards of $10 million after making $7.7 million this past season, and Wilyer Abreu is entering arbitration for the first time with an estimated cost of over $5 million.

Duran could easily be traded this offseason, which could free up close to half the cash it would take to stomach the yearly salary of a top-tier free agent. There are also plenty of non-tender candidates, like former All-Star pitcher Tanner Houck and backup catcher Connor Wong.

We've seen the Red Sox increase their spending appetite over the last two seasons. They went over the first luxury tax threshold in 2025, then over the second threshold this year. And what makes this whole conversation potentially silly is that we don't know what those thresholds are going to be whenever the league and players sort out their differences this winter.

So is it reasonable to expect the Red Sox to field a payroll close to $300 million this year? Perhaps, though we wouldn't wager on them going over. And if that's the case, there's a world where they free up close to $25 million with trades, non-tenders, and hometown discounts.

It's also worth noting that the Red Sox still have a handful of players on long-term extensions whose luxury tax hits are higher than the salaries they project to make, like Roman Anthony, Garrett Crochet, and Kristian Campbell. That balance will flip eventually, so it might be worth loading up on high-dollar, short-term deals while they still can.