Why Red Sox-Phillies Jarren Duran Prediction Doesn't Work for Boston

It's going to be a long offseason full of trade rumors and speculation for the Boston Red Sox. It's the case every year around this time. When the postseason comes to a close in a few weeks, the transaction chatter will intensify as clubs attempt to build winners for the 2027 season, while taking into account a potential lockout.

For the Red Sox, the guy to watch is Jarren Duran. He has been a trade candidate for years at this point, so the buzz shouldn't shock anyone. Plus, his outlook is even more up in the air with arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors projected Duran to get over $11 million in 2027, which is very high for a guy who hit .207 in 2026. Still, he has plenty of upside and team control. Trade chatter will likely be loud, and we've already made the case for — and against — a deal. Still, not all of the speculation will make sense. For example, Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer predicted that Duran will land in Philadelphia and mocked a deal to bring righty reliever Orion Kerkering back in exchange.

"Shifting now to the trade market, there might not be a more obvious offseason trade candidate than Jarren Duran," Rymer wrote. "He's just not the central figure in Boston that he was in 2024, when he was the All-Star Game MVP en route to a 9.0-rWAR season. His production especially cratered this year, in which even 21 home runs could not save him from an output of 0.4 rWAR. ...

What Should Boston Do With Jarren Duran?

Sep 4, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) looks out to the crowed after striking out in the 4th inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie LeBlanc-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"It would also be a reunion of sorts. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was still running the Red Sox when they drafted Duran in 2018. Despite his recent slide, he's still proven to be one of the top players from that year's draft class. As for what a deal could look like, how does everyone like the sound of this challenge trade? Duran for Orion Kerkering."

The fit of Duran and Philadelphia isn't the problem here. In fact, the Phillies need outfield help. It's a good idea to talk to the Phillies. We made a mock trade that would send Duran to Philadelphia, but in a much larger package that would bring Bryce Harper to Boston.

There's no denying the fact that Duran's trade value isn't as high as it once was. But this is still a guy who was a 9 WAR player in 2024 and an All-Star. In 2025, he was a 4.9 WAR player. That obviously isn't as good as his 9 WAR campaign, but still is very good. He would've been tied for 33rd in baseball in WAR this season if he had 4.9 WAR again.

His trade value is lower than it was, but flipping him in a one-for-one deal for a righty-reliever who is coming off a season in which he had a 4.97 ERA in 62 appearances just isn't it. Kerkering was very good in 2024 and 2025. He had a 2.29 ERA in 2024 in 64 appearances. In 2025, he had a 3.30 ERA in 69 outings in 2025. Still, flipping Duran for a righty reliever would be a bad deal. Duran's value is surely lower, but he still does have upside. Plus, Boston could simply package him with other pieces for a better return.

The Red Sox's bullpen is loaded, although you can never have enough good bullpen arms. Still, a deal like this would be a bad look.

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