Cincinnati Reds Starters Are Among the Worst in MLB in This Key Stat

It's been a rough stretch for the starters.

Sep 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) delivers a pitch against Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cincinnati Reds' starting rotation has struggled in 2026. One explanation for the struggles includes injuries. But one area in particular has really hurt the effectiveness of the pitching staff.

The 2026 Rotation

The starting rotation for the Cincinnati Reds is usually one of the strongest parts of the ball club. Developing starting pitching has also been the Reds' calling card over the last several years. From Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott to Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns, the Reds have done a decent job identifying and developing talented starting pitchers. How have the starters been so ineffective? How much time do you have?

Injuries are a part of every baseball season. This year, it feels like the Reds rotation has been extra hurt. Hunter Greene has missed nearly the whole season. Fun fact: Jose Trevino has made more appearances on the mound in 2026 than Hunter Greene has. Nick Lodolo has had his usual blister issues; Rhett Lowder has missed some time; Brandon Williamson has missed significant time. The list goes on and on. But one advanced stat really tells the story of the pitchers' struggles.

The Whiff Issue

Sep 9, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Rhett Lowder (25) pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cincinnati Reds' starting rotation is usually towards the top of certain metrics every season. According to Charlie Goldsmith, in 2022 and 2023, the Reds were decent at chase rate percentage and whiff percentage with two strikes. In 2024, the Reds were excellent at whiff rate on pitches outside of the zone. In 2025, the Reds struck a lot of teams with swing-and-misses in the zone.

The 2026 Reds’ starting rotation is having its worst year in a while in many advanced stats. The starters rank 27th in MLB in two-strike strikeout percentage and 28th in opponent OPS with two strikes. And they are the second-worst in average exit velocity with two strikes in all of MLB. Not good.

What is wild is that the Reds' rotation has been so bad even though Chase Burns has been excellent. He is one of the elite starters at getting batters to chase, so if he wasn't in the rotation, the Reds would probably be dead last in all of these categories. The Reds’ starting pitchers, outside of Burns, haven’t been good enough to get batters out with two strikes. If the Reds want to be competitive next year and beyond, this will have to change.

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