Reds Land Top Talent in MLB Draft, Before Faltering

Major League Baseball held their annual draft over the weekend. The Cincinnati Reds front office and scouting department looked like they were ready to participate. But a participation ribbon, not even a trophy, is what they would end up receiving this year for their efforts.

As the MLB 2026 Draft kicked off, the top three choices had been set for months. Cholowsky (White Sox), Emerson (Rays), and Lackey (Twins) were all but guaranteed to lead the way and they in fact did. After that, the real draft and strategies followed.

When the San Francisco Giants selected RHP Jackson Flora at four, it set off a new timeline of draft selections to some extent. That domino effect led all the way down to the Cincinnati Reds at number eighteen. The pre-2026 top draft prospect SS Justin LeBron fell out of the TOP 10 perfectly down to the Reds and landed in their laps.

It was as if the Baseball Gods had came down and blessed the City of Cincinnati. A year ago there was zero chance the Reds would have been able to add Justin Lebron to their organization. Lebron had followed up his .338/,429/.546, 12 HR, 37 RBI freshman 2024 season with a .316/.421/.636, 18 HR, 72 RBI sophomore 2025 campaign. These are superstar skills on full display.

So why did Lebron fall to the Reds at No 18 overall? After those two elite seasons, he came into his junior year and got off to a erratic defensive start. LeBron committed almost as many errors (19) his junior year (2026) as he did (20) in both his previous two years (2024-2025) combined. That combined with hitting only .222 versus the SEC pitching led to a .277/.386/.534, 16 HR, 48 RBI, plus adding 42 steals.

That junior performance of can he hit at the next level, along with other rising prospects, coupled with specific team draft and organizational strategies, was able to allow Justin LeBron to "slide" down to the Cincinnati Reds at 18. The idea that Just LeBron was able to hit elite SEC pitching in his freshman and sophomore seasons, but not this past junior season doesn't hold water to me. When you look at videos and see him perform, along with striking out less times in 2026 (56) than 2025 (68) in two less games, besides having trouble with curve this season, tell me there was bad luck with balls in play, and not a total swing-and-miss issue.

Rest of the Draft

So let me set this up for you. When I put my recommendations in on players who might slide to 18, I made these notes. If LeBron and Cameron Flukey make it past the Angels at 12 (and this only happened, thank you Baseball Gods, by the Angels firing Perry Minasian and hiring former Cardinals GM John Mozeliak a few weeks ago) I would select in this order: LeBron, Flukey, Sawyer Strosnider, or Ace Reese.

Watch out shout! All four players made it to 18. I remember launching one last attempt, after Houston selected Logan Hughes, that Lebron AND Strosnider are right there! The excitement was palpable. I can guarantee you the Reds war room was ecstatic that Lebron had landed right in front of them and all they had to do was put the name in. This was a GREAT DAY in Reds History as far as I am concerned.

Now the wait begins until the Reds next selection at No. 58. I saw Flukey go to Detroit at 22 and Reese snagged by the Mariners at No. 24. So, I am sitting here hoping right-hander Ben Blair or outfielder Ty Hood would be there at58 for the Reds. Pick by pick go through from Reese at 24 to Head going at 46 to the Orioles, then Blair goes to the Rays at 49. We are now sitting here at selection 50 with eight more picks until the Reds next at #58 and outfielder Sawyer Strosnider is still sitting there. I started to get hopeful. Pick by pick went from #50 to #57 and as the Astros selected lefty starter Wes Mendes (Who if Strosnider was not on the board, would've been a great selection) and there we were at #58. I could not believe the Reds luck.

Sawyer Strosnider was the #22 ranked player by MLB and #14 by Baseball America. I literally was the happiest I have been since Hunter Greene was selected #2 overall by the Reds. At this point less than 45 minutes ago, Lebron or Strosnider was the question. No way you can get BOTH. But here we are and literally the Reds are going to have two new Top 100 MLB prospects added in days with their FIRST TWO picks of the 2026 MLB Draft. Then what was announced was Virginia SS Eric Becker.

Now please let me defend Becker first. This really has nothing to do with Becker. If Sawyer Strosnider is not even an option, you actually literally thank your lucky stars for the ability to add Becker to your organization. A fine addition to any major league team's pipeline. Becker played shortstop for Virginia and is a great bat to ball hitter. The floor for Becker is a serviceable infielder, who if he finds more pop and loft in his left-handed swing, could profile at third base, but because of a fringy arm, likely ends up as a second baseman.

Becker's college production is impressive. Hitting .362/.468/.669, 8 HR, 46 RBI as a freshman in 2024, following up that with a 2025 amazing sophomore .368/.453/.617, 9 HR, 52 RBI. Now there was a month-long hand injury hindering Becker for his 2026 junior season, but he still managed to hit .317/.427/.533, 7 HR, 42 RBI. So, the silver to gold lining here is that before the hand injury, Eric Becker could've also been a top 10 to 15 draft picks in 2026. In that aspect, the Reds did get two blue chip prospects in their top two choices of 2026. Shoot, I almost talked myself into Eric Becker at fifty-eight here writing this paragraph.

But yet there was a top 14 to top 22 prospect sitting there in Sawyer Strosnider (Becker ranked 41). Add in that if you look at the Reds organizational depth chart, you will see a dense number of infielders, especially shortstops, and a dearth of top end or elite outfielders. The choice while maybe even a little hard, to me to be able to add a talent like Strosnider, who a team basically could have been choosing between him and Lebron hypothetically at #18. You now have the ability to select him at #58. Strosnider has back-to-back seasons at TCU, in 2025 hitting .350/.420/.650, with 13 doubles, 11 triples, 10 HR, 51 RBI followed up with a 2026 line of .273/.415/.590, 13 HR, 47 RBI. Not only putting up those numbers but being an athletic outfielder covering centerfield and right field for the Horned Frogs. Not to mention his pretty left-handed Griffey-style swing. I haven't even told you the worst part yet. The Brewers, a division rival with a much better farm development program, selected OF Sawyer Strosnider at pick #66. They have been getting praise all over the baseball world for being able to pick Strosnider after he dropped. All the Reds had to do was write Sawyer Strosnider on a piece of paper. The Brewers did.

So yes, while adding Eric Becker was not even remotely a bad addition, and with all the variables here, a welcomed addition. Like I outlined above, Becker has a high floor, where Strosnider is a quick-twitch athlete with a high ceiling. If I am looking at the facts of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds pipeline, while Strosnider has some swing-and-miss in his game, and you DO NOT draft for need. The Reds happen to have very little in the cubbord for outfield talent. That is where I would've easily selected Strosnider over Becker and would've hoped that Becker was there at pick #70 where the Reds ended up selecting 1B Mulivai Levu out of UCLA.

Okay so now we've gotten the first two selections out of the way and touched on UCLA's Levu at pick 70. I also do not have any anti-Levu comments, and this reminds me of the Sal Stewart pick from a few years ago. There was OF Aiden Robbins, ranked #29, still there who would've been another great outfielder and power hitter to add, who ended up lasting until the Mets grabbed him at #92. I could go into more prospects like prep righty Jenson Hirschkorn (Ranked #56), but I don't want to get lost in the what-ifs of every other player available.

I even asked Baseball America's J.J. Cooper and Jacub Rudner why would the Reds select Becker over Strosnider, even though Becker is a fine addition to any organization, whereas you do not draft for NEED, but the Reds NEED outfield and power prospects added to their system, AND Strosnider is clearly BEST AVAILABLE.

The answer made sense, even though they mentioned National Writer Carlos Collazo happened to concur with me on Strosnider over Becker. Baseball America's top guys were able to concisely explain that with the boom or bust of selecting SS Justin Lebron (Who I already explained why I do not think he's as polarizing as others think), the Reds are basically hedging their bets with adding Becker, a sure thing with a high floor, who does have exceptional ball-to-bat hitting skills. Where they believe Lebron might be the best player to come out of this draft, there is also a chance that Lebron could be a risk. Which is where selecting Becker to hedge the bet comes in.

While I can see what the gurus are saying, and I totally understand the two investments and how Becker's bat will be a sure fire Major Leaguer, I would have gone with the two top end superb high ceiling athletic monsters in Lebron and Strosnider. All the while knowing my depth charts are better rounded out with elite skills in both infield AND outfield without having to turn an infielder into an outfielder which seems to be the strategy in Cincinnati these days?

Furthermore, based on Baseball America's analysis and adding both Becker and Levu to the organization, the Reds are trying to add hitters that will put the ball in play, make hard contact, and not be a swing-and-miss factory. Which no offense to the Reds, but it sure seems like the hitting philosophy of late is launch angle. The current team is one of the leaders in barrel % and homeruns but in the middle of the pack to lower third on average, OBP, and runs. If they are indeed adding players that will put the bat on the ball, they need an organizational change in hitting philosophy. One of the draft pundits at Just Baseball Media mentioned the Reds organization may not have the organizational hitting philosophy to develop, and in some cases, help improve some of these prospects to turning the corner to be quality major league hitters.

Here is where the wheels really fall off this draft for the Cincinnati Reds. With their pick #94 they selected the #234 ranked prospect RHP Tyner Horn out of Nebraska. Even though Horn has a deep arsenal of pitches, throwing a 92-94 MPH fastball that tops out at 98 in shorter stints, goes along with a curve, changeup, slider, and cutter. Selecting Horn could've waited at least another round. Although he was projected to go in the 3rd round before he was moved from starter to ace reliever back to starter this season for the Huskers. Maybe the Reds LOVED Horn and see some projectability and the upside to develop him as a starter, so they just took their guy. The only way this makes sense to me is if the front office has to do an under-slot deal with Horn to pay Lebron a higher allotment because he dropped. But even at that, there were so many other college arms and even college hitters available if that was your strategy.

Moving along to round 4 and pick #122, the Reds selected LHP Ethan Norby out of East Carolina. This isn't a terrible investment, Norby has electric stuff, but at 5'10" he has reliever traits as he throws a low to mid 90's fastball and has an elite slider, with a pair of below average offerings, change and cutter also in his arsenal. The Reds plan to deploy him as a starter.

Now from rounds 5-20. There are so much vanilla selections here, and I believe between three to five prospects selected may not sign with the Reds and go to their college commitments.

Round 5 and draft pick #152, another SS (go figure) prep Dylan Bowen. Ranked #105, athletic, and the best of the rest, but likely signing with commitment Oklahoma State, unless the Reds plan is to allocate some of that 3rd round slot to Bowen. It's worth noting that the Reds director of scouting Joe Katuska said he was confident the Reds would be able to sign Bowen from his commitment to the Cowboys. Round 6 pick #183 was Wake Forest righty Ducan Marsten, who has four good pitches but had an up and down 2026 and may go back to college, already having had Tommy John surgery, and trying to have a better showing in rebuilding his draft stock.

That is the last of the ranked guys until round 18 (out of 20) when they selected, with very little chance to sign, Archbishop Moeller Prep two-way-player RHP/SS Matt Ponatoski, who is committed to Kentucky. Ponatoski is a lefty hitter, righty thrower who's definitely an intriguing prospect but is a long-term project. The other draftees likely to head to college is New York prep RHP David Hinojosa (Vanderbilt), taken 15/452, as well as two-way-player OF/LHP Kenny Ishikawa (Georgia). Ishikawa, selected 13/192, is a left-handed hitter with high OBP, superior hit tool guy with zero power. The lefty can also throw a 95 MPH fastball and shows feel for a slider and changeup. But again both these players might be performing for their respective colleges next year.

The two sleeper draft picks between round 10 and 20 that I do have high hopes on, who I believe will make it to Cincinnati are 11/332 RHP Calvin Proskey and 17/512 CF Jack Lausch. University of California, Santa Barbara righty Calvin Proskey is not a flame thrower, but is an actual pitcher. not just a thrower. He can spin his low 90's fastball with the best of them and has a hammer 12-6 curve with an almost 15-inch break. Those two plus pitches combined with a nice slider and change up give him 4 solid offerings. With the Reds ability to develop starters, Proskey definitely will be a welcomed addition to the pitching lab. I actually wanted Proskey to be drafted by the Reds along with Justin Lebron so that was a welcome sight on the draft board.

Now here we are with a guy that could become Mike Trout or Drew Henson. CF Jack Lausch graduated out of 2022 Brother Rice in Illinois. Back then he was the No. 23 outfielder in the class by Perfect Game and Baseball America's No. 212 overall prospect. Lausch could've been a 2nd or 3rd round MLB Draft pick out of high school. He ends up following his dream to be Northwestern's Starting Quarterback and literally baseball came back to him there.

Lausch again tried baseball after a few years and had a middling 2025 for the Wildcats, hitting .268/.345/.450, 6 HR, 28 RBI. Not bad for a young man taking some time off. Fast-forward another year, Lausch's 2026-line intrigues .312/.393/.653, 13 doubles, 4 triples, 16 HR, 41 RBI and the two-sport athlete can run down about any hit ball to centerfield. He ended up leading all Wildcats in average, OBP, SLG, hits, triples, HR, RBI, and total bases.

The 2026 Cincinnati Reds draft class is about what you'd expect out of recent history. It seems they can really nail it if it's in the top 10 or if someone falls like Lebron this year. They did select 3B Sal Stewart at #32 overall in 2022 so there are some outliers. But from where you really need to find successes in those top 100 picks, first 3 rounds or so and find a gem in the later rounds. This organization just has a tough time. They get cute by selecting players who they think they can develop, like a Lyon Richardson, or they have eyes on a catcher like Chris Okey/Mat Nelson with a high pick that looks almost careless. The draft has no guarantees, but it sure seems like there are some teams like the Rays, Brewers, Yankees, Blue Jays who no matter where they are drafting, top 10 or at the end of each round, come out winners with scouting success stories. Then there are the Reds who seem to disappoint annually and it shows in the prospects pipeline. Graduating a few players like Burns and Stewart and the organizational prospect ranking falls into the 20's. Whether it's acquiring prospects for assets like Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Luis Castillo, or drafting, there needs to be a change in evaluating/drafting philosophy or more boots on the ground or at least a dissenting opinion in the room.

The last 5 first round draft picks have been 3B Cam Collier, RHP Rhett Lowder, RHP Chase Burns, SS Steele Hall, and now SS Justin Lebron. Lowder and Burns are already on the pitching staff. Collier seems to be hitting his way to Cincinnati, and even though I would have selected 4th overall ranked prospect left-handed starter Jamie Arnold over 12th ranked Hall, he is looking like quite the exciting player. Lebron will be the next superstar in Cincinnati and yes, I congratulated the Reds' brass for selecting him. It does not take a rocket scientist to select Lebron when he falls to 18th overall. It went downhill from there.

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