The Numbers Behind Andrew Abbott’s Tough Start in 2026

With Hunter Greene out to start the season, the Reds turned to Andrew Abbott, who was an All-Star in 2025, to be their Opening Day starter. Through five starts, it's been a struggle for Abbott, who has an ERA of 5.84 and a FIP of 4.32.

Let's dive into the numbers and see why Abbott is struggling so much in 2026.

Exit Velocity Hasn't Changed Much

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) circles back to the mound after giving up a three-run home run to Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz (15) in the first inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Abbott is getting hit harder than in previous seasons, but it's not a drastic change. His average exit velocity given up is 88.3 in 2026, compared to 87.8, 88.2, and 91.2 mph in 2023.

The barrel % against him is actually the lowest of his career at 6.8%.

Not Fooling Anyone

One big difference from previous seasons is that Abbott isn't fooling anyone and generating enough swings and misses. His strikeout rate is down to 13.2% compared to 21.8, 19.5, and 26.1 in the three previous years.

I asked Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) on X about Abbott's struggles. Here is what he had to say:

"He is an extreme fly ball pitcher who is allowing more hard contact than he typically does. It was always a volatile profile, especially in that park

He just is not fooling any batters with his fastball either."

The whiff% on his fastball is just 6.1% compared to 19.9% in 2025.

Overall, he's getting batters to chase just 24.9% of the time, which ranks in the bottom 10% of Major League Baseball.

Some Bad Luck

Apr 18, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) pitches to Minnesota Twins designated hitter Byron Buxton (25) in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Out of the four main pitches Abbott throws consistently, three of them have a batting average of .291 or higher. Opponents are hitting .291 against his fastball. That pitch he's actually been fortunate with. His heater has an expected batting average against of .337.

Opponents are hitting .360 against his changeup, but the expected batting average is just .255.

And against his curveball, the stats are even more drastic. Opponents are hitting .385 against his curveball while the expected batting average against is .186.

Two starts ago, Abbott talked about some of his poor luck to start off the season.

“Something we talked about in Spring Training was trying to induce groundballs," Abbott told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. "... There’s nothing wrong with it. It’s still soft contact. I think I gave up two batted balls over 95 [mph]. So I’m doing what I need to do. It’s just luck of the draw and today was not a good day.”

Those numbers show some bad luck that you'd like to think will turn around at some point.

A Change Arm Angle

Abbott’s arm angle has gradually increased over the past few seasons, but the jump in 2026 really stands out. He was at 46 degrees in 2023, dipped slightly to 45 in 2024, then moved up to 48 in 2025. Now it has climbed to 52 degrees this season, the highest mark of his career.

Abbott's walk rate is the highest of his career and you have to wonder if the change in arm angle has anything to do with that.

Summary

Overall, there isn't anything that looks too concerning when looking at Abbott's numbers. His stuff+ is slightly down, but it's all pretty similar to what it's been in previous season.

On top of that, he's had some bad luck. For a pitcher like Abbott who doesn't generate a ton of swing and misses, he needs to throw strikes. Walks have definitely hurt him this season.

Abbott will face off against Framber Valdez on Friday night at Great American Ball Park.

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