Noah Cameron's Tale of Two Halves Shows his Floor and Ceiling in the Rotation
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The 2026 Royals rotation had an interesting year where they had a ton of perceived depth, until they didn't due to various injuries hitting them. One of the only mainstays in the rotation, however, was Noah Cameron, who put together one of the more interesting seasons in baseball. The 2026 season saw Cameron step into the number two slot in the rotation, mainly because he had to, and saw some sparks of great pitching mixed with some bad pitching.
Overall, Cameron finished up his second season with a 4.11 ERA, 2.8 fWAR (led Royals pitching in fWAR), 8.02 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, and 1.07 HR/9. In most ways, it was a similar season to 2025, minus the inflated ERA. Let's dive a little deeper into Cameron's 2026 profile.
The Master of None was still Effective
If anyone looks at Cameron's Baseball Savant profile, the thing that might stand out is the fact that he isn't good or outright bad in any stat (outside of fastball velo). His whole profile sits between the 30th to 60th percentile. The only red percentiles in his whole profile come from his fastball run value and offspeed run value.
Cameron also pretty much replicated his 2025, outside of a couple of key numbers, as not much changed in his profile. The two big numbers that changed were his barrel rate and average exit velocity, as those regressed a bit in 2026. He allowed barrels at an 8.2% clip and gave up an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph.
With more loud contact, especially in the first half of the year (more on that later), it makes sense why his ERA sat at 4.11 in 2026. Another trend that Cameron showed in 2026 was that his out pitches changed from his curveball/slider in 2025 to his cutter and changeup in 2026. Those breaking pitches had a combined run value of 16 last season while the cutter and changeup had a combined value of 11.
His cutter was actually the key to his season, having a ton of peaks and valleys because he opened the season with it as a secondary pitch to his 4-seam fastball. Then in the second half, the cutter was his primary pitch, and its run value sat at 8 to end the season, which was good enough to be tied for the fourth-best run value on the pitch in the league. Speaking of that second half, let's discuss his first half to second half.
To Call or not to Call Pitches
The first half of the season, or at least before July 19, for Noah Cameron was a downright disaster. He had a 5.27 ERA, and in four of his last five starts before July 19, he allowed 5+ earned runs. Five days later, the Royals decided to try him out as a bulk innings guy against the Tigers as they started Beck Way to give Cameron as easier runway for the rest of the game. That game, Cameron went seven strong allowing two hits, three walks, no runs, while striking out eight Tigers.
It came out later in a report by Anne Rogers that Cameron began calling his own shots starting in that Tigers game. While a lot of his pitching emphasis lay on his changeup and cutter being good in 2026, his slider saw a big uptick in usage in the second half of the season, which helped him have a balanced arsenal. Now, his slider did have issues with being hit hard, but it helped unlock his cutter since both pitches mimicked each other.
In the graphic above, his cutter (darker red) and slider (yellow) had similar movement profiles and velocities. Another thing in his movement profile is that his whole arsenal is built to play off his 4-seam and cutter, and in the second half, it showed the peak of Cameron's ability to make hitters hit on his terms rather than the other way around.
If we look at his runs above average for his repertoire, in the second half, every pitch had a positive runs above average. His fastball went from -2.7 in the first half to 2.5; his cutter from 0.5 to 6.6; his sinker from -5.2 to 1.2; his slider from -4.6 to 0.9; and his changeup from 2.5 to 3.1. Cameron calling his own shots made his arsenal more balanced and more effective.
Conclusion
Noah Cameron had an odd 2026 that saw him grow as a pitcher despite having some bad stretches throughout the season. While his second half was great, he didn't finish the year strong as batters began to adjust to him, so 2027 will be interesting to see if he can adjust once again. Either way, Cameron showed his floor and ceiling in 2026 and he will for sure be a featured piece in the rotation going forward.
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Trey is no stranger to writing about the Royals as he has done it for 6 years now for various blogs (Kings of Kauffman, Inside The Royals, and Farm to Fountains). He is a graduate of Baker University with a degree in Mass Media with an emphasis in sports media. He enjoys watching and researching sports as well as gaming.
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