The Play of Isaac Collins Leaves Royals' with Same Question as Last Offseason
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In the last offseason, the Royals and Brewers swung a trade that saw the Royals give up Angel Zerpa for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears. For both teams, this trade has not worked out as Zerpa was hurt and needed Tommy John Surgery, while Collins has underperformed and Mears underperformed and got hurt. The trade was swung as the Royals needed an impact bat in the outfield and Collins was coming off a rooke season that saw him garner Rookie of the Year votes.
This year, however, it hasn't worked out for Collins with the Royals, as he is slashing .221/.326/.337 for an OPS of .662 and wRC+ of 88. With the need for an impact bat in the outfield last offseason, it seems the question is going to persist into this offseason. Let's dive into Collins profile and see what went wrong.
The Need for an Impact Bat in the Outfield Persists
Collins has not been the answer for the Royals persisting question of who is the next impactful outfield bat for the Royals? He has struggled in multiple facets this season and hasn't been able to replicate his 2025 form that saw him finish fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. Let's discuss why 2026 has differed for him.
Starting with probably the biggest reason, he has regressed against every pitch from last year. In 2025, he was serviceable against most pitches, except changeups, hitting around .240 or better. His strength last season was hitting all breaking pitches with a .284 average and .608 slugging percentage. This year, he is hitting below .200 and has a slugging percentage below .400 against breaking pitches.
Diving a little deeper, in 2025, Collins mashed curveballs, sweepers, cutters, and sliders, all of which had slugging percentages above .550. This year, against those pitches, his highest slugging percentage is .484 against sliders (sweepers are second at .438). Against those pitches, he has been a completely different player this year, compared to last. That isn't factoring in his regression against 4-seam fastballs either, which he has hit .226 against this season.
He has struggled a lot against certain pitches, yes, but that doesn't explain everything. Taking a look at his swing/take profile explains a lot of his struggles. To be more specific, he has struggled within the heart and shadow of the zone, with values of -15 and -16. For pitches in the heart, he is taking (34% of the time) more than the league average (28% of the time), amassing -12 take runs in the heart.
In the shadow of the zone, he is producing similar results by taking a lot (56%) and not swinging a ton (45%), but the swings have not worked for him as he has a value of -17 in swing runs. The struggles in the shadow are concerning, given that he was solid in 2025 with a value of -4. Something has been off with his swing decisions this season. This leads into another topic of discussion for Collins.
Odd batted ball profile
Isaac Collins is a batter who thrives when he hits line drives, but struggles when he hits anything else. In his whole career, he has a wRC+ of 379 when he hits line drives. The only issue is that, at least this season, he hasn't hit many line drives. This season, he has hit line drives at a 16.5% clip, compared to his 24.6% clip last season. This is a key number for him as if he is around league average he is a plus bat, but if he is below it he struggles.
Typically, the next best batted ball for batters is flyballs, mainly because those tend to be extra base hits. For Collins, however, flyballs are his second worse outcome with a 79 wRC+ in his career. In 2026, he has a wRC+ of 58 on flyballs and he has hit flyballs 44.0% of the time. In short, as a batter he doesn't get his power from flyballs and struggles with a high infield flyball rate (13.2% this year).
Collins thrives when he is hitting line drives, but struggles when the result is anything else and that is mildly concerning if he isn't hitting line drives like this season. The focus has been on the bat, but he has also had issues in the field.
Defensive Issues in Left Field
While Collins isn't known for being a gold glove caliber fielder, he was solid in Milwaukee patrolling left field. In terms of OAA, FRV, and DRS, the 2025 season saw Collins amass 5 OAA, 2 FRV, and -1 DRS. That is a solid season in left field for most left fielders in the league. In 2026, those values sit at -1 OAA, 1 FRV, and 3 DRS.
The improvement in DRS can be solely explained by the fact that Collins has ten outfield assists this season. Outside of that, Collins has lost what made him a solid defensive left fielder in Milwaukee: his jump on the ball. Per Baseball Savant, in 2025 Collins was able to make catches on 2+ star difficulty catches 51.9% of the time. This year, he sits at 33.3%. The major reason is his decline in his jump on the ball. In 2025, he had a jump that was 3.3 ft better than the average, courtesy of an elite reaction. In 2026, that jump fell to -0.7 ft versus the average.
The bat and defense has regressed for Collins in 2026 and it continues the trend of the Royals not getting an impact bat in the outfield.
Conclusion
While the trade for Collins hasn't worked for any party involved, the Royals maintain control of him until 2031 and there are some positives he brings to the table. He walks a ton, is a switch-hitter, and has a solid plate discipline profile. At a minimum, he will probably be the fourth outfielder until he can show some of his 2025 form. The issue is that the Royals have multiple outfielders itching for a chance at the majors and they can play in Collins spot if he isn't able to finish strong this year or start strong next year.
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Trey is no stranger to writing about the Royals as he has done it for 6 years now for various blogs (Kings of Kauffman, Inside The Royals, and Farm to Fountains). He is a graduate of Baker University with a degree in Mass Media with an emphasis in sports media. He enjoys watching and researching sports as well as gaming.
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