MLB Staff Roundtable: Predictions for September and Beyond

There are only 30 days left in the regular season. It’s time to pick contenders, pretenders and much more.

Tarik Skubal has a 3.38 ERA in four starts for the Dodgers after being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As of Friday, we are precisely 30 days away from the end of MLB’s regular season. With so much to be settled between now and then, this seems like a good time to get the Sports Illustrated staff together for some predictions on how the rest of the year will play out.

Feel free to bookmark this page to shove these picks back in our faces when they’re proven wrong.

1. Which team are you most confident about penciling in for a World Series berth?

Tom Verducci: Dodgers. Yeah, boring, I know. Just line up Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani (with Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki as bulk relievers) and Los Angeles has swing-and-miss depth like nobody else. The offense ranks third in runs per game and is among the five toughest to strike out.

Ryan Phillips: It’s the Dodgers. They haven’t been as dominant as they should be with that roster, but betting against that rotation in the postseason would be silly. They have Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and possibly Shohei Ohtani in the stable. Yeah, no one is topping that. The Dodgers collectively have the best OPS in baseball (.762), yet their offense is an afterthought at this point.

Will Laws: In the mediocre morass of the American League, I think the Yankees have, by a wide margin, if healthy, the best rotation and lineup to help them emerge from an uninspiring field of contenders. 

Nick Selbe: The Brewers. Yes, they play in the same league as the two-time defending champion Dodgers, who unceremoniously swept Milwaukee in last year's NLCS. But to me, this is the most complete team with the fewest question marks. The Brewers rank third in the league in fWAR by position players (the Dodgers are second). Their starting pitchers rank third (the Dodgers are fourth) and their bullpen ranks third (the Dodgers are sixth), so the margins are small here. But Milwaukee has a league-best 35–20 record against teams .500 or better, including a 4–3 season series advantage over the Dodgers. With no confidence in any of the American League teams, I had to look to the NL for the answer to this question. And when I ask myself who the best team in the league is at this juncture, the answer is Milwaukee.

Karl Rasmussen: Dodgers. Is there really another choice? The Dodgers have the best roster in baseball, even if their marquee offseason acquisitions haven’t quite lived up to expectations. The rotation should be at full strength come the postseason, and there’s no team with more experience playing in the bright lights of October. 

In his age-36 season, Astros star Jose Altuve has shown clear signs of decline. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

2. Which team currently in a playoff position is most susceptible to a September collapse?

TV: Houston Astros. Their starters rank 28th in ERA with the worst strikeout-to-walk rate. Their starters have won six times in 34 games since the break. Nothing comes easy.

RP: The Astros, simply because they’re not a very good team. The AL West is the epitome of American League mediocrity this season. No one is above .500, and the Mariners are six games below that mark and somehow only 2 1/2 games back. No one in that division deserves a playoff spot, but one of them (at least) will get in. Houston has a -48 run differential entering the weekend. Yordan Alvarez has carried the Astros while racing out to the forefront of the AL MVP race. If he substantially regresses over the final month, Houston will miss the postseason.

WL: If only because there are so many alternatives within striking distance, it’d surprise me if the Guardians end up as the final AL wild-card team.

NS: Since the AL West has been a game of musical chairs between three subpar teams, I'll leave them out of it. Instead, I'll go with the White Sox, who have spent most of the year in a playoff spot yet are fading quickly at the worst time. Luis Castillo has flopped since arriving from Seattle, and the rest of the rotation is running out of steam, particularly Davis Martin, who had a 3.00 ERA through June but has put up an 8.16 ERA in his last eight starts. Chicago still has some buffer in the playoff picture, but cracks in the foundation are forming, and I'm concerned the bottom might fall out down the stretch.

KR: The AL West is far from secure for the Astros, who just limped their way through a 3–7 homestand against some lackluster opponents, namely the Athletics and Angels. That performance won't inspire much confidence from fans in Houston, and as the team's pitching continues to struggle, the Astros could find themselves surrendering the division lead and falling out of the playoff race.

Don’t look now, but Cal Raleigh has five home runs in his last seven games after sleepwalking through much of this season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

3. Which team not currently in playoff position has what it takes to qualify and make a run?

TV: Seattle Mariners. Despite a dreadful offense loaded with underachievers, the Mariners are still hanging in there. Their high-end talent still gives them a fighting chance. Keep an eye also on the Blue Jays. They have no games remaining against winning teams.

RP: The Mariners. On paper, there’s no reason they should have the record they do. It’s nearly identical to the same roster that was an inch away from the World Series last season. The rotation is loaded and just added baseball’s top pitching prospect in Kade Anderson, and Cal Raleigh is showing signs of awakening from his season-long slumber. Seattle is currently 2 1/2 games back in the AL West and four games out of the wild-card race. A good final month and they’ll make it. 

WL: A lot of people like the Mariners to make another deep run, but the Rangers have a decent advantage over them in the standings, with a past championship pedigree to boot. I wouldn’t want to face Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore in a playoff series.

NS: We've been dreaming on the Orioles for the better part of half a decade, and while they've spent most of the season outside the playoff picture, they look like they could be dangerous if they get in. Pete Alonso is somewhat quietly enjoying an excellent first season in Baltimore, and the rotation has a few talented arms that have mostly played below their potential so far. Beyond Alonso, there's a lot of power potential in this lineup that opposing pitching staffs would not be too excited about facing come October.

KR: Seattle made a deep postseason run last season, but their offense has been massively disappointing all year long. It seems as if Cal Raleigh may finally be breaking free of his debilitating slump, and if that’s the case, he could provide the boost to the Mariners’ offense that it’s desperately needed. Seattle’s pitching remains top tier, so if the offense can get it together, the M’s could claw back into a playoff spot, especially considering how weak the AL West is.

Guardians pitcher Parker Messick is a dark horse in both the AL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

4. Who’s an underrated awards contender more deserving of recognition?

TV: Drew Rasmussen, Rays. The AL Cy Young Award race has been framed as a battle between Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease. Don’t overlook Rasmussen. He has won seven consecutive starts and leads the league in WHIP and strikeout-to-walk rate.

RP: Yordan Alvarez nearly has the AL MVP award locked up, but Bobby Witt Jr. leads the AL in fWAR (6.3) and bWAR (6.2), and is second in baseball in both marks behind Pete Crow-Armstrong. He enters the weekend slashing .288/.366/.458, with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases and a wRC+ of 127. A lot of his value is defensive, but the MVP award isn’t supposed to only about offense. Granted, the Royals are terrible, and Witt missed some time with a back injury, but he has still brought more all-around value than any player in the AL this season. He probably won’t be named AL MVP, but he deserves recognition for what he’s done when on the field. 

WL: It’d take an epic collapse for Jacob Misiorowski to lose his chokehold on the NL Cy Young race, but Cristopher Sánchez—the MLB leader in bWAR (7.0), mind you—is waiting in the wings with a damn good résumé after finishing as runner-up last year.

NS: Parker Messick should be getting more attention, both in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation and the Cy Young Award race. He won't win the latter (which will likely come down to Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease), but he should be in strong consideration for the top five. And he should definitely be considered a top contender for the former. Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle is a deserving favorite, but Messick ranks in the top five among AL starters in ERA (2.50), WHIP (1.01) and FIP (3.08). He's been a model of consistency, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 23 of his 26 starts and never giving up more than four in a single outing.

KR: Junior Caminero for AL MVP. Much of the MVP conversation has been focused on Yordan Alvarez, and rightfully so, but Caminero has been outstanding this season and is the most impactful offensive player on the AL’s best team. Caminero has 35 home runs and a .897 OPS, and has raised his walk rate from 6.3% in 2025 to 11.7% in ’26, while also striking out in a career-low 18.3% of his plate appearances.

Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is favored to win the NL MVP award in the midst of a terrific all-around season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

5. Make a bold prediction for September.

TV: Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs becomes the seventh 40–40 player in MLB history—the first center fielder—while edging Barry Bonds for the highest WAR in the 40–40 club.

RP: The Guardians are going to catch fire again, blitz past the White Sox and win the AL Central. Cleveland is far better than its performance so far this season. The offense has been sleepwalking for much of the year, with José Ramírez having his worst season in a decade. That can’t hold, right? The Guardians have the arms to make a run, and I have to believe the lineup will wake up before the regular season ends.

WL: The Braves have valiantly controlled the NL East this season despite depending on the likes of Martín Perez, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder to hold down the bulk of their rotation. But I think the Phillies and their vastly superior pitching staff will overtake them for the division crown during the regular season’s final weekend. 

NS: The Marlins will win the NL's last wild-card spot. They enter Friday four games back of a playoff position, but just need to run down two teams (the Diamondbacks and Padres). If not for a 12-game losing streak in July, Miami would be getting more buzz as a real contender. The strength here is the pitching staff, which has put up an NL-best 2.96 team ERA over the past month. Back-to-back road series against San Diego and Arizona in mid-September will determine if this prediction comes true, and if the Marlins can successfully navigate that stretch, there's a good chance they’ll soar into October.

KR: An AL East team won’t make the World Series. The three best teams in the junior circuit are all from the perennially strong division, but I’m predicting none of them will advance past the ALCS. The Yankees have a tendency to play sloppy defense in October, which has cost them games in the past and could foil their chances of winning a pennant. The Red Sox have been wildly inconsistent throughout the year, and a cold spell in October could put an end to their playoff run. As for the Rays, the bottom half of their lineup hasn’t produced at a high level this season, and it could wind up hurting them in the postseason.

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