Where the Twins’ Playoff Odds Stand After Getting Swept by Phillies

The Minnesota Twins have gone cold at the wrong time.

Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee (22) throws to first for a force out. Credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Minnesota Twins have been one of the more pleasantly surprising teams in Major League Baseball this season. With many expecting another down season, the Twins have stood out as a potential AL Wild Card team as the regular season winds down.

However, their playoff hopes took a massive hit this weekend against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Twins and Phillies got their series underway at The Field of Dreams, where Minnesota dropped the game 7-1. Unfortunately, the trip back to Target Field didn't favor the Twins the rest of the series.

The Phillies went into Minnesota and swept the Twins at the beginning of their homestand. The series finale looked to be under control for the Twins, but a seventh-inning rally from the Phillies delivered the gut punch necessary for the lead to change hands again.

After losing the series finale 7-5, the underdog Twins face a harsh reality as their playoff odds look grim, having dropped all games in the series and six of their last ten.

Twins Playoff Odds Following Sweep Revealed

Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee (22) hits a grand slam. Credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to FanGraphs, the Twins' playoff odds now sit below 20% at 19% following the sweep. In more precise terms, Minnesota was given a 10.9% chance of winning the AL Central, which has become more difficult following the Chicago White Sox' sweep of the Detroit Tigers, and an 8.1% chance as a Wild Card team.

There's still time for the Twins to right the ship, though their schedule doesn't get any easier, as they welcome the NL East-division-leading Atlanta Braves to Target Field to begin a three-game series on Monday.

The Braves enter the series with a 74-50 record and are coming off a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Twins' offense came back to life in the series finale against Philly, scoring five runs after putting up two between the first two games of the series. The franchise will need more of the same from the offense to take down Atlanta, but can't afford bullpen blowups as they've experienced as of late.

For a team that added players at the MLB Trade Deadline, specifically A.J. Minter to help the bullpen, the Twins haven't played like a team primed for the playoffs. There are 37 games left in the 2026 regular season, so there's still time for this team to click as they were before the All-Star break.

First pitch against the Braves is scheduled for 6:40 CDT.