Last-Minute Predictions: Will Yankees' Aaron Judge Win AL MVP?

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has been named a finalist for a third AL MVP award, and he is neck-and-neck with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh for the win. Now down to the wire, fans and commentators are speculating about who is more likely to win by a vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleig — May 30, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates after hitting a solo-home run against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning at T-Mobile Park. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) kneels at right. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Judge had the league's strongest offensive season in the American League, a point that no one is arguing. All three major statistics making up the Captain's slash line beat out the performances of everyone in the MLB, let alone the AL, batting .331/ .457/ .688 in the regular season.

The Athletic's Chris Kirschner made a case for Judge on the "Foul Territory" podcast.

"I'm not really entirely sure why it's a debate, like I get that Cal Raleigh had a great year with Seattle, hitting 60 home runs as a catcher is obviously incredibly impressive, but Aaron Judge was 43% better, statistically speaking, than Raleigh offensively," Kirschner said.

"Raleigh didn't grade out particularly well defensively, I get that he has other duties that he's in charge of when it comes to managing the pitching staff, but Judge had another historic season. He had 53 home runs, won the batting title, had a WRC+ over 200 which is not common. I'm not really sure why it's a debate. Judge should be the MVP."

Judge consistently found himself among Yankee and MLB greatness this season, making his way onto the all-time home run leaderboard among Yankees by beating out Yogi Berra and Joe DiMaggio with his 368 career homers. Judge won a 2025 Silver Slugger (his fifth) in addition to his seventh All-Star appearance, but this is not a cumulative award, either.

The Case for Raleigh

Oct 20, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrates in the dugout after scoring against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning during game seven of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Judge was hampered by a brief stint on the injured list and a longer stint as designated hitter due to a right flexor strain he suffered in July, and his production was somewhat hurt. His 53 home runs this season came in fourth in the league, and the home run race has Raleigh out front with his 60 (the best of all time for a catcher). This feat, taken with the fact that he was strong defensively in the challenging (and underappreciated) catcher role.

"The beating that Cal Raleigh took, the amount of innings [1072] he logged behind the plate, the amount of responsibility that can't be measured in statistics," Divish said. "This isn't the category for best offensive player, I mean if it was, Judge would be a winner in a landslide."

"But it's about overall value. I've watched a lot of bad catching in my life and I've seen elite catching, even if the framing numbers don't match this year, which is also indicative of the strike zone changes that they've had, I just don't really feel like a catcher that goes out and does what he's done and puts up the numbers he has, I just think there's too much value in what he does on a daily basis on both sides [...] to be overlooked."

The argument for Raleigh is a more immaterial one, but it's true that the AL MVP Award is a more immaterial victory than a hard-numbers victory. It is not decided by a calculation, it's decided by a vote.

Judge's previous MVP wins came in 2022 and 2024, and while the fans in New York are delighted to see him win it again, the Raleigh story seems to delight everyone else. The Mariners, though not the World Series champs this year, made it closer than they ever have before, and Raleigh was a huge piece of that step forward for their organization. It is considered a coin flip for who might win the tight race, and the baseball world will have the result soon.

The votes are in already, of course, but the viewing public doesn't have an answer yet. The BBWAA will announce the winner on November 13 at 7pm.

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