The Biggest Question Facing the Yankees Before Game 1 of Division Series Against Rays

The New York Yankees are entering the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays brimming with confidence.

Despite losing the AL East title to the Rays, the Bronx Bombers managed to take three out of four over them in a late September series to build momentum into the playoffs. Against the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees' lineup caught fire while the pitching remained strong, resulting in a two-game bludgeoning.

There's plenty of reason to believe the Yankees can beat the Rays even without home-field advantage. Everything seems to be clicking at the right time, and while the Rays are a talented team in their own right, the Yankees still have a considerable advantage in that department. As long as the Yankees play clean, fundamental baseball, they have a great shot at knocking out another division rival.

However, the Yankees will also face a tall order in Game 1, as they'll need to overcome a long-time nemesis on the mound.

Can the Yankees finally solve Drew Rasmussen?

While Drew Rasmussen is the ace of the Rays' rotation and is stingy against any opponent, he's earned a reputation as one of the league's premier "Yankee killers" due to his sheer dominance against them throughout his career.

Cash: Drew Rasmussen will start Game 1 of ALDS for the Rays, via @Ry_Bass. pic.twitter.com/retgQsiVAI
— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) September 30, 2026

In 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees, Rasmussen has a 1.81 ERA and a whopping 70 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 59.2 innings. Of the righty's 10 starts, four have been scoreless over six innings or more. This season, Rasmussen faced the Yankees four times and pitched 22 innings, allowing just seven runs and striking out 26.

Rasmussen's ERA against the Yankees would be even lower if not for an uncharacteristically bad start on July 9. After failing to score a single run the first two times against him, the Yankees came alive and knocked Rasmussen around for six runs on seven hits in just 2.1 innings. All six runs came in the third inning, with the big blow being a two-run home run by Ben Rice.

Ben Rice (27)

Opponent: Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen
Date: 07/09/2026 pic.twitter.com/QoCnRXYCLX
— Yankees Home Runs (@NYY_HR) July 9, 2026

But the Rays have not lost a single game Rasmussen has started since then, and the Yankees' one loss in that four-game series against Tampa came at Rasmussen's hands. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out 11, allowing the Rays to clinch the AL East (although the Yankees' chances of winning the division were already slim to none at that point). It's clear the Yankees still haven't figured him out.

Being the Rays' ace, Rasmussen will start Game 1 of the ALDS. Even with the Yankees' offensive momentum, that could easily be halted if Rasmussen dominates again. Almost all of the Yankees' playoff exits since 2009 have been the result of an extended offensive slump, so they need the bats to stay hot even in a losing effort.

The silver lining is that New York will start Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Cole has a 3.29 ERA against Tampa since joining the Yankees and pitched well against them this year. In three starts, he allowed just five runs and struck out 16 batters across 18.0 innings.

If the Yankees beat Rasmussen in Game 1, then they have a massive advantage with Cam Schlittler scheduled to start Game 2. And if Schlittler delivers yet another gem, the Yankees could very well have a 2-0 series lead heading back to the Bronx. However, getting that Game 1 win will be an extremely tall order, and the only way to grab the advantage in the series is to solve their nemesis for good.

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